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  • Japan's Long Comeback

    From schwab.com

    Stocks around the world hit new all-time highs last week, but one stood out. • The U.S. S&P 500 Index eclipsed the high set just the week before. • Europe's STOXX 600 Index climbed above its prior high set a little over two years ago in January 2022. • Japan's Nikkei 225 Index hit a new all-time high set 34 years ago. We have been eagerly anticipating this move by Japan's stocks market, highlighted last June in Japan: Reclaiming Lost Decades. Today, the Nikkei 225 Index continues to outperform the S&P 500. Even though Japan's stock market is the second largest in the world, it often doesn't get much ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Feb 26, 2024 8:08pm Feb 26, 2024 8:08pm
Really good and enlightening article Jeffrey. Schwab charts also great as usual. Debt 255% of GDP, wow

"Ultimately, Japan's debt growth may be unsustainable. As of December 2023, Japan's government debt is 255% of GDP, double that of the U.S. (123%), and the highest of any developed nation according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)."

Nikkei going to make a great short trade at the right time.
And thanks for the cardboard box details! Fascinating
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  • #2
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  • Feb 26, 2024 8:18pm Feb 26, 2024 8:18pm
Wonder when the US will fall through the printed cash raft and sink into the lake. BRIC' s will be throwing them lead floats to help the process.
  • #3
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  • Feb 26, 2024 8:24pm Feb 26, 2024 8:24pm
Quoting Scran
Wonder when the US will fall through the printed cash raft and sink into the lake. BRIC' s will be throwing them lead floats to help the process.
The US is always a bit slow off the mark to recognise trouble. And the BRIC's will be delighted to help out with that leaky raft, the USS Ponzi isn't it?
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  • #4
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  • Feb 26, 2024 8:55pm Feb 26, 2024 8:55pm
Interesting. USD/JPY was at 153 in 1990 and it plunged to 80 from there. Will the history repeat its last trend or will it hit the all time high from 1970's.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 23 KB
  • #5
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  • Edited 9:23pm Feb 26, 2024 9:11pm | Edited 9:23pm
Quoting BlackLotus
Interesting. USD/JPY was at 153 in 1990 and it plunged to 80 from there. Will the history repeat its last trend or will it hit the all time high from 1970's. {image}
Do you remember when BOJ put a floor under UJ and it just stayed there for ages until the giant uptick kicked in? Suspect they are now doing the same thing in reverse, putting a lid on top of UJ instead. Won't be surprised to see UJ price just hang around the 150.00 level for some time. Nothing particularly detectable, just the inscrutable ways of the JPY housewives. We shall see.
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  • #6
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  • Feb 26, 2024 9:24pm Feb 26, 2024 9:24pm
Sorry I don't as I'm somewhat new to FX. I've been only studying part-time macroeconomics for the last 6 years and what Japan "the seconds biggest market" is doing does not make much sense to me... then again - "I will never truly understand the FX"
  • #7
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  • Feb 26, 2024 10:06pm Feb 26, 2024 10:06pm
Quoting BlackLotus
Sorry I don't as I'm somewhat new to FX. I've been only studying part-time macroeconomics for the last 6 years and what Japan "the seconds biggest market" is doing does not make much sense to me... then again - "I will never truly understand the FX"
Here's the chart with the floors marked and corresponding time frames
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Floor.png Size: 27 KB
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  • #8
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  • Feb 27, 2024 2:03am Feb 27, 2024 2:03am
Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} The US is always a bit slow off the mark to recognise trouble. And the BRIC's will be delighted to help out with that leaky raft, the USS Ponzi isn't it?
That's a good one! USS Ponzi hahahahah
  • #9
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  • Feb 27, 2024 6:29pm Feb 27, 2024 6:29pm
I think the slow off the mark is called denial.
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  • Posted: Feb 26, 2024 7:39pm
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    Category: Fundamental Analysis
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