-
Why a US recession has become less likely
The probability of a U.S. recession in the coming year has declined, as the risk of a disruptive debt-ceiling fight has disappeared and stress in the banking sector appears to be only a modest drag on the economy, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Our economists say there’s a 25% chance of recession in the next 12 months, down from their earlier projection of 35% shortly following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March. The U.S.’s agreement to raise the nation’s debt limit will result in small spending cuts that are expected to leave the economy’s trajectory unchanged over the next two years, while ... (full story)