Australia's trade account: January 2021 | Metals Mine

  • Australia's trade account: January 2021

    From westpaciq.westpac.com.au

    Australia's trade surplus hits $10.1bn in January, a fresh record high. That was even stronger than our above market forecast of $8.3bn. The market median was $7.5bn, with a range of $6.0bn to $12.2bn The January result was a $3.0bn improvement on December, which was revised up a little from $6.9bn to $7.1bn. Australia’s trade account has now been in surplus for 37 consecutive months – each month through 2018, 2019 and 2020, as well as the opening month of 2021. What a way to start the New Year – a fresh record high for the trade surplus, in dollar terms, eclipsing the $9.6bn last March. Export earnings grew by ... (full story)

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kingleeny
Mar 4, 2021 1:13am
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these are very skewed figures. yes the prices are so much higher it seems as though the trade surplus is much bigger when trading. but retail sales which gague the real appetite of the Australia is still soft. not a good figure.
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LloydOz
Mar 4, 2021 2:14am — Edited
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Quoting kingleeny
these are very skewed figures. yes the prices are so much higher it seems as though the trade surplus is much bigger when trading. but retail sales which gague the real appetite of the Australia is still soft. not a good figure.
"Imports dipped by 2.3%, softer than our anticipated sideways move." In Australian dollars. A lot of retail is imported stuff, coz Australia doesn't manufacture much anymore. China probably makes the "made in Australia" stickers.

Are we reading the same article? It doesn't mention prices. However what is just maths is that all other things being equal with a stronger AUD, in Australia export prices increase and import prices decrease - surely Westpac knows that?

So (again, all other things equal, including quantities and international prices) a strong exchange rate will in the short term promote a trade surplus.

There are longer term feedback loops to other things, but that's analysis.

edit - I didn't (couldn't - computer says no) read the attached PDF to the article. If I regret writing those words, that's why.
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