Gold: Continuing to See Sellers Above | Metals Mine

  • Gold: Continuing to See Sellers Above

    From dailyforex.com

    The gold markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday but continue to see a significant amount of resistance above the 50-day EMA as there is a bit of selling near the $1850 level. The fact that the market is struggling in this area is perfectly acceptable from a technical analysis standpoint, due to the moving average and the “mid-century mark”, but we also need to pay attention to the fact that rates are rising in the United States, which makes gold quite a bit less attractive due to the fact that you can get a yield by simply holding paper. On the other hand, if we do see the US dollar get ... (full story)

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LloydOz
Feb 11, 2021 7:33am
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Quoting Guest
I sincerely think that EMA's tell very little about the future of price direction (regardless of how much we use them as lampposts to lean on in our perennial struggle with price discovery). The simple fact is that they are lagging indicators (and EMA's in particular lag far more than say TMA's or Triangular Moving Averages). The more dependable indicators of price direction and range would be pivots. Pivots arise when within the microstructure there are no further order matches in the order book or proximate enough within its listings (for a price...
You introduce some interesting angles which of course nobody has ever thought of before.

I'd like to comment and maybe contribute but you are a guest.
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LloydOz
Feb 11, 2021 8:36am — Edited
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Quoting Guest
{quote}Thank you for your observations. Not sure why my being a guest inhibits you expressing your thoughts. The thread is not mine it is for members and guests who would also share in your thoughts. But of course, what you do is a choice only you can make. The Crow (-_-)
There are a million guests on this tremendous forum. I'm fussy as to who I respond to. This is my choice.

Having said that, I'd start with your opening words - "EMA's tell very little about the future of price direction". I like to call EMAs filters.

Filters tell us everything about the past which may provide pointers as to what the future may hold. Statistics are required, and perhaps a generous smattering of trigonometry. Radar technology is based on filters. Where it is likely that the missile or rifle shot will plonk itself is a sophisticated Kalman filter. Based on an EMA, which is Gaussian at a fundamental level.

Like a moving target, the markets move in a manner that may be revealed with predictable resolution. Except when they can't, and that is when you stand aside. That's another issue.
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LloydOz
Feb 11, 2021 11:22am
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Quoting Guest
{quote}I am sure you are right in your sense, which if it serves you well, good for you. The issue here however, is not MA's or the millions of other filters applicable to the market, including phases of the moon, hopping on one leg x number of times and buying or selling on the even or odd count depending on stamina, etc. All those are valid filters. One thing though the market is not Gaussian (that is a fact of mathematics), and trading on Gaussian dialectics could be very dangerous or more correctly risky. Since in fact the normal distribution...
Guest - you have deflected from maybe a useful discussion of EMA filters (high pass, low pass, one or more poles and any -preferably mathematically optimal - combination) to an analysis of an appropriate measure of risk, which is a discussion on option pricing and the wiener process. Goodbye, Guest.
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Trader#6A92
Feb 11, 2021 6:25am
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I sincerely think that EMA's tell very little about the future of price direction (regardless of how much we use them as lampposts to lean on in our perennial struggle with price discovery). The simple fact is that they are lagging indicators (and EMA's in particular lag far more than say TMA's or Triangular Moving Averages). The more dependable indicators of price direction and range would be pivots. Pivots arise when within the microstructure there are no further order matches in the order book or proximate enough within its listings (for a price jump or gap up or down) to sustain direction. This is why market clearing theory is the fundamental economics of price fluctuation. Another important consideration in this context is aperiodic cyclicality (or chaotic fluctuation) and what it says of the economic theory of market clearing. Here the key is fractal geometry which objectively shows that X must equal Y ultimately (i.e. a low pivot always calls a high pivot of approximately equal value and vice versa). Which makes stark the importance of the knowledge of market cyclicality. This in fact justifies the economics notion of market clearing or pivots since in addition to the other discipline above, academic finance (corroborates this thinking and) tells us that financial markets do NOT allow either side anymore than the discounted value of a sale or purchase on full translation of a financial market transaction. Gold therefore remains strong up until circa 1955 (i.e. close to the value at which the selloff began by this logic).

The Crow (-_-)
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Trader#6A92
Feb 11, 2021 7:43am
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Quoting LloydOz
{quote} You introduce some interesting angles which of course nobody has ever thought of before. I'd like to comment and maybe contribute but you are a guest.
Thank you for your observations. Not sure why my being a guest inhibits you expressing your thoughts. The thread is not mine it is for members and guests who would also share in your thoughts. But of course, what you do is a choice only you can make.

The Crow (-_-)
Reply
Trader#6A92
Feb 11, 2021 10:07am
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Quoting LloydOz
{quote} There are a million guests on this tremendous forum. I'm fussy as to who I respond to. This is my choice.
I am sure you are right in your sense, which if it serves you well, good for you. The issue here however, is not MA's or the millions of other filters applicable to the market, including phases of the moon, hopping on one leg x number of times and buying or selling on the even or odd count depending on stamina, etc. All those are valid filters. One thing though the market is not Gaussian (that is a fact of mathematics), and trading on Gaussian dialectics could be very dangerous or more correctly risky. Since in fact the normal distribution understates risk by far too much. Cheers and happy trading.

The Crow (-_-)
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