Russia balance of payments: supportive of ruble in near-term, 2H21 risks mount

From think.ing.com

Current account to remain well supported in 1H21: Russia's current account surplus totalled US$32.5bn in 2020 (including US$5.5bn in 4Q20), which is US$4.5bn lower than we expected and half the 2019 surplus of US$64.8bn. Nevertheless, we are not in a rush to take the numbers negatively. Looking into the structure of the 4Q20 current account, we see a number of positive developments. •Non-fuel revenues growth showed a slight pick-up to 5% YoY in 4Q20 (Figure 1) on continued strong exports of gold and agriculture products, benefiting from favourable crops and a lack of internal demand for gold from the Bank of ... (full story)