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Ms Schnabel noted that since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting on 6-7 March 2024 financial markets had started to price in some divergence between the monetary policy paths expected in the euro area and in the United States. This was reflected in a widening interest rate differential. In the United States, a series of solid economic data releases had signalled the US economy’s resilience to the current levels of interest rates. This had led financial markets to expect the timing of a first interest rate cut to be later and the overall extent of monetary policy easing to be less than previously anticipated. post: ECB ACCOUNTS: THE WIDELY AGREED PRICE DATA IS IN LINE WITH THE MID-TERM PATH. post: ECB ACCOUNTS: UNDERLYING INFLATION PROGRESS WAS GENERALLY SEEN. post: ECB ACCOUNTS: IT WAS SEEN AS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE GOVERNING COUNCIL WOULD BE IN A POSITION TO START EASING MONETARY POLICY RESTRICTIONS AT THE JUNE MEETING.
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When the yield curve flattens and eventually inverts, you worry. But it’s when a recession hits, the Fed cuts rates and the curve steepens that you become s**t scared. Yield curve dynamics represent a crucial macro variable, as they inform us on today’s borrowing conditions and on the market future expectations for growth and inflation. An inverted yield ...