CA BOC Summary of Deliberations
It's a detailed record of the BOC's Governing Council's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates;
Source first released in Jan 2023;
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- CA BOC Summary of Deliberations News
- From globalnews.ca|Dec 23, 2024
The Bank of Canada’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points on Dec 11 was a close call, with some members of the governing council suggesting a smaller reduction, according to minutes released on Friday. The central bank slashed its key policy rate to 3.25 per cent to help address slower growth. Governor Tiff Macklem indicated further cuts would be more gradual, a shift from previous messaging that continuous easing was needed to support growth. The minutes said the discussions had focused on whether a 50 basis point or a 25 basis ...
- From bankofcanada.ca|Dec 23, 2024
Governing Council members began their deliberations by discussing how the global economy had evolved since the October Monetary Policy Report. Their discussion focused primarily on recent economic developments in the United States. The US economy continued to grow strongly, driven by robust consumer spending. Although unemployment ticked up, the labour market remained solid with strong wage growth. Given the strength in productivity, the impact of strong wage growth on unit labour costs, and hence inflation, had been muted. The recent evolution of economic activity and inflation was broadly in line with expectations. Inflation pressures remained, particularly in services, which had kept inflation steady at around 2˝%. While members continued to expect overall inflation to ease gradually in the coming months as supply and demand rebalanced, they highlighted upside risks to this outlook, including from possible policy decisions by the incoming US administration. In China, recent policy measures and ongoing strength in exports has supported growth. Nevertheless, household spending was still weak, largely because of ongoing challenges associated with the residential property sector. These underlying issues, coupled with uncertainty around potential new US tariffs, were expected to weigh on growth. Recent indicators suggest growth in the euro area could be weaker than expected, due in part to challenges in the manufacturing sector. Unemployment remained low in the region, but job vacancies had declined. Wage pressures remained and appeared to be feeding into services price inflation. Global financial conditions had eased since October. Corporate credit spreads continued to narrow and equity markets remained strong. The US dollar had strengthened against most other currencies, including the Canadian dollar, which had depreciated to about 71 cents since October. Compared with most other major currencies, the Canadian dollar was relatively stable. Canadian economy and inflation outlook post:
BOC MINUTES: MEMBERS DISCUSSED ARGUMENTS BOTH FOR CUTTING BY 25 BPS AND 50 BPS. post: BOC MINUTES: THE BANK OF CANADA DECISION TO CUT RATES BY 50 BPS ON DECEMBER 11TH WAS A CLOSE CALL. post: BOC MINUTES: MEMBERS AGREED THAT THEY WOULD LIKELY BE CONSIDERING FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN THE POLICY RATE AT FUTURE MEETINGS, AND THEY WOULD TAKE EACH DECISION ONE MEETING AT A TIME.
- From scotiabank.com|Dec 20, 2024
Merry Christmas, happy holidays and here’s to wishing the best of the new year to our clients, staff, friends and families! While it will be quieter, this two-week edition of the Global Week Ahead addresses expected developments such as the reimposition of the US debt ceiling in the second week, the likelihood of a shutdown of the US government over the holidays, limited central bank communications from the BoC, RBA and Turkey’s central bank, and a handful of key global economic indicators out of most major regions of the world ...
- From bnnbloomberg.ca|Nov 5, 2024
Some Bank of Canada officials worried cutting interest rates by half a percentage point would be misinterpreted as a sign of trouble for the economy. Part of the bank’s governing council feared that a larger-than-typical reduction in borrowing costs would lead investors and Canadians to anticipate additional jumbo cuts, according to a summary of deliberations of their October rate decision. Policymakers were also concerned it would create the impression that interest rates would need to become “very accommodative.” “Since a 50 ...
- From bankofcanada.ca|Nov 5, 2024
This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on October 23, 2024. This summary reflects discussions and deliberations by members of Governing Council in stage three of the Bank’s monetary policy decision-making process. This stage takes place after members have received all staff briefings and recommendations. Governing Council’s policy decision-making meetings began on October 15, 2024. The Governor presided over these meetings. Members in attendance were ...
- From bankofcanada.ca|Sep 18, 2024
This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on September 4, 2024. This summary reflects discussions and deliberations by members of Governing Council in stage three of the Bank’s monetary policy decision-making process. This stage takes place after members have received all staff briefings and recommendations. Governing Council’s policy decision-making meetings began on August 29, 2024. The Governor presided over these meetings. Members in attendance were Governor Tiff Macklem, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Governors Toni Gravelle, Sharon Kozicki, Nicolas Vincent and Rhys Mendes. International economy Governing Council members began their deliberations by discussing how the global economy had evolved since the July Monetary Policy Report. Their discussion focused primarily on the outlook for growth and inflation in the United States and China. In the United States, growth was higher than expected in July, mainly due to strength in consumption. The successive upside surprises in household spending were puzzling, particularly as the labour market had begun to slow. Members suggested that net wealth effects from strong equity markets, and the fact that existing mortgage holders had locked in low mortgage rates, could be supporting consumption. The low saving rate was viewed as a possible indicator of weakness going forward. Inflation in the United States had eased further. In China, continued weakness in domestic demand had increased the downside risk to post: BOC MINUTES: THE GOVERNING COUNCIL AGREED IT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE ECONOMY GROW AT A RATE ABOVE POTENTIAL OUTPUT. post: BOC MINUTES: CONCERN ABOUT DOWNSIDE RISKS WAS LINKED TO POTENTIAL FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE ECONOMY AND LABOR MARKET. post: BOC MINUTES: MEMBERS DISCUSSED SECOND SCENARIO WHERE ECONOMY AND LABOR MARKET COULD WEAKEN; IN THIS CASE IT MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE TO SPEED PACE OF CUTS. post: BOC MINUTES: MEMBERS FELT CONSUMERS COULD BE WAITING FOR LOWER RATES TO MAKE LARGE PURCHASES OR ENTER THE HOUSING MARKET.
- From bankofcanada.ca|Aug 7, 2024
Governing Council members began their deliberations by discussing the prospects for global growth. Overall, their forecast had not materially changed since the April Monetary Policy Report. The global economy was expected to continue growing at around 3%, while inflation in major economies was forecast to continue easing gradually toward central bank targets. Members exchanged views on the outlook for US economic growth and inflation. Recent data had indicated that the US economy had begun to slow in the first half of the year, largely due to the long-anticipated moderation in US consumer spending. A cooling labour market could further dampen consumption. At the same time, members discussed the risk that US consumption could rebound, given the persistence of earlier strength and retail trade data for June that had been stronger than expected. Inflation in the United States looked to have resumed its downward track, although there was still some stickiness in the growth of services prices. In Europe, growth had come in a bit stronger following a weak 2023. Tourism was providing a boost to activity. Labour costs remained high and may have been contributing to services price inflation in the euro area. The extent to which these costs are passed through to prices or absorbed through tighter margins was uncertain. China’s domestic economy remained weak even as exports were strong. However, prospects for continued strong export growth were clouded by trade restrictions and tariffs. Members discussed how financial conditions had eased since the April Report. Yields for short-term bonds had declined by around 50 basis points as markets increasingly anticipated that monetary policy would start easing in the United States. Corporate credit spreads remained narrow and corporate debt issuance was robust. Equity markets in the United States and Canada were resilient. The large gains in the US were mainly attributed to technology companies and the boom in artificial intelligence, but strength had recently spread to other sectors. post: BOC MINUTES: MEMBERS AGREED TO CLEARLY COMMUNICATE THAT THEY WOULD BE WEIGHING THE FORCES THAT COULD PULL INFLATION BELOW THE TARGET AGAINST THOSE THAT COULD HOLD IT ABOVE THE TARGET post: GOVERNING COUNCIL SAW LESS CHANCE THAT PENT-UP DEMAND WOULD LEAD TO A SUDDEN RISE IN HOUSE PRICES AS RATES WERE CUT: MINUTES post: BOC MINUTES: AHEAD OF BANK OF CANADA'S JULY 24TH RATE ANNOUNCEMENT, THE GOVERNING COUNCIL SAW RISK THAT CONSUMER SPENDING COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN EXPECTED IN 2025 AND 2026.
- From bankofcanada.ca|Jun 19, 2024
Governing Council began its deliberations by reviewing recent data on the global economy since the April Monetary Policy Report. Global growth improved modestly to about 3% in the first quarter of the year, broadly in line with expectations. US growth slowed, while growth in the euro area and China picked up. The US economy was weaker than expected, largely due to drag from exports and inventories. Consumption growth and business investment were both solid but had slowed. US inflation had proven sticky in recent months, but Governing Council members continued to expect that it would gradually ease. In contrast, growth in China increased after unevenness in 2023, and growth in the euro area resumed after stalling in the second half of 2023. The pickup in China’s economy was mostly due to foreign demand boosting exports, while domestic demand remained subdued. Economic activity increased modestly in the euro area driven mainly by an increase in demand for services. Members noted that while headline inflation was below 3% in both the United States and euro area, three-month measures of core inflation had picked up in both regions relative to the beginning of the year, reversing earlier downward momentum. Although inflation was expected to continue to ease gradually, progress toward central bank targets could be bumpy. Oil prices had initially risen above levels assumed in the April Report because of global conce post: BOC MINUTES: WHILE MEMBERS RECOGNIZED THE RISK THAT PROGRESS ON INFLATION COULD STALL, THERE WAS CONSENSUS INDICATORS SHOWED ENOUGH PROGRESS TO WARRANT A CUT. post: BoC Members Agreed Reasonable To Expect More Cuts If Progress Continues, Policy Easing Likely To Be Gradual - Minutes - Agreed Policy 'Not Close' To Limit Of Divergence From Fed - Members Considered Waiting Until July To Cut Rates - Four Months Of Core CPI Easing Warranted June…
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