CA BOC Summary of Deliberations

Governing Council began deliberations by discussing recent developments in the global economy. The conflict in the Middle East was in its fourth month, and its impact on the global economy had increased. Higher energy prices had pushed up inflation worldwide and global growth looked to have slowed, with weaker gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the Gulf region and many oil-importing countries, such as those in the euro area and Asia. Governing Council members also discussed broader disruptions to shipping and to the supply chains for several commodities. Oil reserves were reported to be dwindling in some countries. Some new supply lines were being developed to avoid the bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz, but these would take some time to become operational. There was also more evidence of disruptions to supplies of fertilizer and other petrochemical products. Members agreed that the longer the war dragged on, the greater the risk of higher global inflation and slower world growth. Members also discussed the role of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) in supporting economic growth. This was particularly evident in the United States. AI investment was also supporting growth elsewhere, considerably boosting activity in some Asian economies such as South Korea and Taiwan. In the United States, the combination of strong AI-related investment, a buoyant stock market and growing energy exports were all supporting economic activity. The economy grew 1.6% in the first quarter and growth was expected to pick up in the second quarter. Members discussed whether the strength in the US economy was broad-based, or whether surging investment in some sectors and consumption by higher-income households were masking softness elsewhere in the economy. Members considered various possible outcomes of the Middle East conflict. The war could end decisively, which would lead to a significant easing in oil prices. Or the war could escalate again, causing another jump in oil prices and continued uncertainty. A third BoC Meeting Minutes: Members agreed that if the inflation data began to show evidence that inflation pressures were spreading, it would be a signal that monetary policy tightening is warranted BoC Meeting Minutes: Governing council members agreed that the economic situation presented a dilemma for monetary policy.

Governing Council began by discussing the impact of the war in the Middle East on the global economy and inflation. The conflict had led to a sharp increase in global oil prices and heightened volatility in global energy and financial markets. Growth prospects had deteriorated for many countries, particularly those that are heavily reliant on oil and natural gas imports. Higher energy prices had boosted inflation in countries around the world. In the United States, growth was expected to remain solid in the first quarter. Households continued to spend despite higher gasoline prices, and investment in artificial intelligence (AI) remained strong. Members noted that the US labour market had been relatively stable, with few layoffs but weak hiring. Inflation had held steady at just under 3% in the period before the war started and had moved up further with the increase in gasoline prices. In China, in the near-term the economy appeared relatively insulated from the war in the Middle East. Robust exports continued to support growth, offsetting modest domestic demand. The economy in the euro area had been showing signs of resilience before the start of the war. But higher oil and natural gas prices and the potential for energy shortages were likely to weigh on growth. The global benchmark price of oil was volatile and above US$100 per barrel at the time of the April Monetary Policy Report. Consistent with the oil futures curve, members’ baseline assumption was that oil prices would decline in the coming quarters. They noted, however, that there was considerable uncertainty around this assumption due to the unpredictable path of the war. Several other commodity prices had risen in recent months, i AHEAD OF THE BANK OF CANADA'S APRIL 29 RATE DECISION, GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBERS CONCURRED THEY HAD ROOM TO REMAIN PATIENT FOR THE TIME BEING – MINUTES; GOVERNORS BELIEVED THE SITUATION COULD SHIFT RAPIDLY AND RATES MAY NEED TO RISE TO PROTECT AGAINST ENDURING INFLATION – MINUTES GOVERNORS BELIEVED THEY COULD OVERLOOK THE INITIAL INFLATION JOLT FROM HIGHER OIL PRICES – MINUTES; GOVERNORS ALSO RECOGNIZED THERE MIGHT BE LESS SURPLUS SUPPLY THAN ESTIMATED, AND THE OUTPUT GAP COULD NARROW QUICKER THAN PROJECTED – MINUTES

Governing Council began its deliberations by discussing recent developments in the global economy and the implications for the outlook. Global growth had continued to track at about 3%, as had been expected in the January Monetary Policy Report. However, the start of the war in Iran had increased uncertainty around the global outlook. Energy prices had risen sharply, which will boost inflation around the world. Members agreed that the impact of the conflict on global growth and inflation will depend on the duration of the conflict and the extent to which it spreads across the Middle East. Members also noted a new development in global trade—the US Supreme Court’s ruling that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal and the US administration’s plans to replace tariffs through other means. They agreed that this had no direct implications for sectoral tariffs on Canadian exports and that trade-related risks to Canada remained unchanged since January. In the United States, indicators of economic activity had moderated since January but remained solid. The effects of the US government shutdown on consumption and government spending were temporary and led to slower growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. Economic activity was expected to pick up in the first quarter to average about 2% over the two quarters. The US outlook for 2026 remained in line with the projection in the January Report, driven by consumption and strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI). Investment outside the AI sector was subdued, and exports remained weak. The labour market had softened slightly, with some indicators suggesting there could be more slowing. US inflation had risen in recent months, driven partly by previously announced tariffs that had passed through to pr Just in | Minutes Reveal Governing Council's Concerns Over Rising Gas Prices and Persistent Inflation Impacting Inflation Expectations. BoC's Meeting Minutes: The governing council agreed to keep options open BoC Governing Council felt that in the near term, risks to growth looked tilted towards the downside, whereas the oil price shock represented additional upside risk to inflation.

This summary reflects discussions and deliberations by members of Governing Council in stage three of the Bank’s monetary policy decision-making process. This stage takes place after members have received all staff briefings and recommendations. Governing Council’s policy decision-making meetings began on January 20, 2026. The Governor presided over these meetings. Members in attendance were Governor Tiff Macklem, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Governors Toni Gravelle, Sharon Kozicki, Nicolas Vincent, Rhys Mendes and Michelle Alexopoulos. Governing Council began deliberations by discussing recent data and developments in the global economy. Members reflected on recent geopolitical turbulence and what it meant for the outlook for global growth. While most major economies had proven resilient in the face of US tariffs, the prospects for global growth were vulnerable to unpredictable US trade policy and heightened geopolitical tensions. In the United States, strength in consumer spending as well as investment related to artificial intelligence (AI) contributed to stronger-than-expected economic growth. Members anticipated that consumption would remain robust due to wealth effects from strong equity markets and growth in real incomes from productivity gains. The US labour market had softened, with some weakness in hiring over recent months. Going forward, labour market conditions were expected to stabilize with solid growth in US gross domestic product (GDP). US inflation was being held up by the pass-through of higher tariffs to prices, but inflation was expected to ease gradually as the impact of tariffs on inflation fades. Nevertheless, members acknowledged that businesses might have been holding back on passing on the costs of tariffs to their cu BANK OF CANADA MINUTES SHOW MEMBERS AGREED TO MAINTAIN POLICY OPTIONALITY AHEAD OF THE JAN. 28 RATE DECISION, VIEWING THE POLICY RATE AS STIMULATIVE AMID HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY OVER GROWTH, POTENTIAL OUTPUT AND ECONOMIC SLACK. GOVERNING COUNCIL SAID THREATS TO FEDERAL RESERVE…

This summary reflects discussions and deliberations by members of Governing Council in stage three of the Bank’s monetary policy decision-making process. This stage takes place after members have received all staff briefings and recommendations. Governing Council’s policy decision-making meetings began on December 5, 2025. The Governor presided over these meetings. Members in attendance were Governor Tiff Macklem, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Governors Toni Gravelle, Sharon Kozicki, Nicolas Vincent, Rhys Mendes and Michelle Alexopoulos. Governing Council members began their deliberations by discussing global economic developments since the October Monetary Policy Report. Members agreed that the global economy was showing continued resilience in the face of US protectionism. In the United States, the absence of official data during the government shutdown clouded the picture. Available information suggested that strong consumer spending and investment in artificial intelligence had continued to support growth. Unemployment was relatively stable, although layoffs in the private sector had been increasing. Members discussed whether early indications of retail sales for Black Friday suggested US consumption could be boosted by more than usual for the holiday period. Rising equity prices was likely providing some support for consumer spending by wealthier households. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the United States had ticked up slightly in September, likely due to some pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices. Members noted that if the pass-through were to expand, there could be an upside risk to US inflation. In the euro area, growth now appeared stronger than anticipated in the October Report. The strength came largely from a boost in demand for services. Going forward, a surge in Chinese exports to the region could compete with local manufacturing and weigh on growth but increases in defence spending could offset these pressures. Growth in China was weighed down by weakness in ho BOC OFFICIALS AGREED IT'S UNCLEAR WHAT NEXT RATE MOVE WILL BE BOC OFFICIALS AGREED CANADIAN ECONOMY IS IN EXCESS SUPPLY BoC Governing Council Felt It Was Hard To Predict Whether Next Move Would Be A Hike Or A Cut - Agreed To Remain Cautious In Interpreting Data Given Recent Volatility - Prepared To Respond In Case Of A Major New Shock, Or Data Showing Economy And Inflation Diverting Materially…

Governing Council members began their deliberations by discussing global economic developments since the July Monetary Policy Report. The impact of US protectionism on major economies around the world had become clearer. Trade flows had begun to shift, and ongoing trade uncertainty had weighed on investment in most advanced economies. Even so, global growth was resilient but was expected to slow over the next two years. Economic growth in the United States remained strong even with higher tariffs on imports. Members attributed much of this strength to the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) investment. US consumer spending was robust overall, contributing to this strength. Consumption was likely supported by segments of the population who have benefited from buoyant equity markets. Employment growth had slowed, and tariffs were beginning to push up US consumer prices. After growth in US gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded in the second quarter of 2025, members expected it to moderate in the second half of the year and in 2026. Growth in the euro area was expected to moderate in the second half of 2025 because of weaker exports and slower domestic demand growth. Fiscal spending on defence and infrastructure could provide some support going forward. In China, growth was robust, boosted by strong government support for households and an increase in exports to other (non-US) countries, replacing lost exports to the United States. However, a sharp decline in investment was expected to contribute to slightly slower growth over the next two years. Members noted that slower-than-expected GDP growth in China could translate into weaker demand and lower prices for raw materials exported by Canada. BoC: Members expressed concern that weakness in the labour force could persist and broaden - Minutes. BoC: Members had a range of views about the timing of the cut but arguments for a move in October were considered more important - Minutes. BoC Meeting Minutes: Some members felt waiting would provide them with more information about economy, jobs and inflation.

This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on September 17, 2025. This summary reflects discussions and deliberations by members of Governing Council in stage three of the Bank’s monetary policy decision-making process. This stage takes place after members have received all staff briefings and recommendations. Governing Council’s policy decision-making meetings began on September 12, 2025. The Governor presided over these meetings. Members in attendance were Governor Tiff Macklem, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Governors Toni Gravelle, Sharon Kozicki, Nicolas Vincent, and Michelle Alexopoulos. Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes did not attend. BoC Meeting Minutes: Members reviewed a broad range of inflation indicators and agreed they continued to point to underlying inflation of around 2.5%. Experts Say Household Spending Will Continue To Boost Growth, Supporting Slight Expansion As Previously Estimated, But Warn That Trade Disruptions Could Add Costs With Uncertain Timing, Magnitude, And Inflation Effects.

Governing Council members began their deliberations by discussing global economic developments. As in June, the focus of the discussion was ongoing tariffs and trade negotiations between the United States and other countries. Some important trade agreements had been announced, notably with Japan and the European Union, and the risk of an escalating and protracted global trade war had diminished. While uncertainty was still very high, it was clear that the United States is no longer willing to engage in free and open trade. Members discussed the implications of this shift for economic growth going forward as trade is reconfigured and companies adjust to new trading relationships. Members agreed that, so far, the global economy had shown more resilience to the trade turmoil than had been expected. Data at the time of the deliberations showed that in the United States, domestic demand was being held up by a solid labour market, investment related to artificial intelligence, and a recovery in equity markets. However, US growth had been moderating—household spending had slowed with greater uncertainty about trade policy weighing on consumer confidence. China’s growth had also slowed, although higher exports to other countries compensated for lower exports to the United States. Growth in the euro area had moderated, reflecting slower growth in domestic demand. Members discussed recent financial conditions, which had recovered strongly since the turmoil in April. They noted that equity and other risk asset prices were back up to levels seen at the beginning of the year, apparently responding to markets’ assessments that tariffs and their impacts would be less severe than anticipated. Longer-term government bond yields were also up in many countries because of high current and anticipated sovereign debt issuance and revised expectations about the degree of monetary policy easing. The Canadian dollar had strengthened against the US dollar but weakened against other currencies. BoC Minutes: Some Saw Stimulus As Sufficient Before July 30 Rate Call BoC Minutes: Others Backed More Stimulus; Council Debated Policy Role In Economic Upheaval BoC Minutes: Council Wants More Clarity; Inflation Expectations Still Anchored