CA BOC Business Outlook Survey
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;
This report is highly respected given its source and timing in relation to interest rate decisions. It can also have predictive qualities regarding future economic conditions because the surveyed firms are selected in accordance with their composition of the nation's GDP;
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- CA BOC Business Outlook Survey News
- From bankofcanada.ca|Jan 20, 2025
Overall business sentiment remains subdued, but firms are beginning to anticipate improvements in sales activity. Meanwhile, businesses expect growth in costs to continue to ease and growth in selling prices to stabilize. • After a period of weak demand, firms expect their sales growth to improve over the coming year. This expectation is largely driven by recent interest rate reductions and the anticipation of further cuts ahead. • With lower financing costs and improving demand outlooks, intentions to increase investment have become more widespread among firms. Part of this is a resumption of previous plans that were postponed. post: BoC Business Outlook Future Sales Q4: 31.0 (prev 13.0) - Overall Business Outlook Survey: -1.2 (prev -2.3) post: BOC CONSUMER SURVEY: EXPECTATIONS FOR 5-YEAR INFLATION HAVE DROPPED TO 2.99% FROM 3.03% IN Q3. post: BOC Q4 SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS SHOWS 46.5% OF CANADIANS EXPECT A RECESSION, DOWN FROM 49% IN Q3.
- From bankofcanada.ca|Oct 11, 2024
The Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicator—a summary measure of questions in the BOS—continued to be lower than usual in the third quarter of 2024 because of weaker-than-average demand indicators, slowing price and cost growth, and easing capacity pressures (Chart 1). However, it has become gradually less negative over the last four quarters as demand indicators have improved slightly, the paces of wage and price normalization have slowed, and credit conditions have eased. Firms largely attribute the improvements in demand indicators this quarter to the two interest rate cuts that took place before the time of the survey and the expectation of further cuts. Additionally, fewer firms are planning for a recession in Canada over the coming year (16% this quarter compared with 20% last quarter). When firms were asked directly about business conditions, they said conditions remained subdued and stable. Business sentiment has stayed at a relatively low level since February 20 post: BoC Business Outlook Future Sales Q3: 13.00% (prev 1.00%) - Overall Business Outlook Survey: -2.3 (prev -2.9)
- From bankofcanada.ca|Jul 15, 2024|1 comment
Firms’ sales outlooks are mostly unchanged from last quarter and remain more pessimistic than average. Businesses tied to discretionary spending reported particularly weak sales expectations, while those tied to essential spending see population growth continuing to benefit their sales. • Investment spending plans also remain below average. Weak demand, elevated interest rates, uncertainty about the business environment and the high cost of machinery and equipment were cited as discouraging investment. In this context, investment spending has become increasingly concentrated on upkeep and repair rather than expansion or improvements in productivity. post: BoC Business Outlook Future Sales Q2: 1.00% (prev 1.00%) - Overall Business Outlook Survey: -2.9 (prev -2.4) post: BOC SURVEY: BUSINESSES ACROSS ALL REGIONS, SECTORS REPORTED THAT LABOR MARKET CONTINUED TO EASE; ON BALANCE, FIRMS NO LONGER SEE A NEED FOR HIGHER WAGES TO ATTRACT OR RETAIN WORKERS post: BOC: CANADIANS BLAME INFLATION ON HIGH GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND HOME PRICES. post: BOC: CONSUMER 1Y CPI EXPECTATIONS FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TO 4.1%, SURVEYS SHOW SUBDUED INFLATION EXPECTATIONS.
- From bankofcanada.ca|Apr 1, 2024
Business sentiment and sales growth expectations have stopped falling, according to firms responding to the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. But demand remains subdued, which is allowing price pressures and the labour market to ease. As a result, fewer firms than in the previous survey are planning unusually large or frequent price increases over the next 12 months. Overview • Firms reported that demand remains weak overall. But there are some signs of returning optimism. Namely, indicators of business conditions, sales outlooks and employment intentions have changed direction after many quarters of decline. In the wake of weak past sales growth, expectations for improved sales are supported by population growth, efforts to enter new markets or develop new products, and expectations that interest rates will decline over the next 12 months.Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations - First Quarter of 2024 Consumers believe inflation has slowed, but their expectations for inflation in the near term have barely changed. Consumers link their perceptions of slowing inflation with their own experiences of price changes for frequently purchased items, such as food and gas. • Expectations for long-term inflation have increased, though they remain below their historical average. Relative to last quarter, consumers now think that factors contributing to high inflation—particularly high government spending and elevated home prices and rent costs—will take longer to resolve. • Canadians continue to feel the negative impacts of high inflation and high interest rates on their budgets, and nearly two-thirds are cutting or postponing spending in response. Although weak, consumer sentiment improved this quarter, with people expecting lower interest rates. As a result, consumers are less pessimistic about the future of the economy and their financial situation, and fewer think they will need to further cut or postpone spending. post:
BOC SURVEY: 40% OF FIRMS EXPECT INFLATION TO REMAIN ABOVE 3% FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS, DOWN FROM 54% IN Q4. post:
BOC SURVEY: 27% OF FIRMS EXPECT CANADA TO BE IN A RECESSION OVER THE NEXT YEAR, DOWN FROM 38% IN Q4. post:
BOC SURVEY: OVERALL Q1 BUSINESS SURVEY INDICATOR -2.42, Q4 WAS -3.09 (REVISED FROM -3.15).
- From bnnbloomberg.ca|Jan 15, 2024
The Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys showed higher interest rates are working to ease inflation expectations and slow the rate at which companies raise prices. Monday’s reports underscored an economy hit by the bank’s aggressive rate hiking campaign, cementing views that its tightening cycle is likely done and setting the stage for policymakers to start considering cuts as early as the first half of this year. The central bank’s business outlook indicator rose slightly to -3.2 in the fourth quarter, from -3.5 ...
- From bankofcanada.ca|Jan 15, 2024
Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that softer demand and renewed competitive pressures are slowly pushing down growth in output prices. Concerns about labour shortages are receding; even so, wage growth is expected to ease only gradually. Partly because of this slow easing, firms expect inflation to remain above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target for some time. • Firms’ pricing behaviour is slowly returning to normal; however, some businesses continue to make larger and more frequent price increases than they did before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Firms increasingly see demand and competition as moderating their output price growth. Nonetheless, businesses reported that downward pressure on the growth of their input and output prices has eased somewhat, leading to a less negative Business Outlook Survey indicator.Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2023 This survey took place between November 1 and 17, 2023. Follow-up interviews took place from December 1 to 8, 2023. • Consumers perceive inflation to have decreased, and their expectations for price growth for some key goods such as food and gas have moderated. But near-term inflation expectations have barely changed. Persistently high expectations for inflation for services such as rent may be slowing progress in returning overall inflation expectations to where they were before the COVID?19 pandemic. Expectations for inflation in the long term have fallen further below the historical average and continue to be more varied than usual. • People have adjusted their behaviour in response to high inflation. For the past few quarters, more consumers than before the pandemic have been paying attention to inflation and changing their spending habits. However, actions that may support inflation, such as seeking wage increases to offset inflation, are dissipating. post:
BOC 4Q Surveys: About 25% of Firms Don't Expect CPI to Return to 2% Over Next 4 Years
BOC 4Q Surveys: About 75% of Firms Say High Rates Have "Negatively Impacted" Operations
BOC 4Q Surveys: Roughly Two-Thirds of Households Intend to Curtail Spending
BOC 4Q…
- From bankofcanada.ca|Oct 16, 2023
Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that firms expect their sales growth to be subdued over the next 12 months. This slowdown in demand is reducing capacity pressures and weighing on businesses’ plans for investment and employment. Although cost and pricing pressures continue to moderate, they are still expected to be higher than normal in the coming year. Firms’ inflation expectations edged down but remain higher than they were before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Many expect returning inflation to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target will take longer than three years. Overview • Firms reported that economic activity has slowed across a broad range of indicators. Their expectations for sales growth—especially sales to domestic customers—continued to moderate. • Roughly half of businesses said that their pricing practices are not yet back to normal. On balance, firms are still planning to make larger and more frequent price increases than they did before the COVID‑19 pandemic. But they expect to raise their selling prices at a slower rate than in the past 12 months as the pace of increases in their input costs slows.Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023 • Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation remain elevated and are leading to persistently high expectations for inflation over the next 12 months. The gap between perceptions of inflation and actual inflation is unusually wide. This is likely because many consumers form their views based on their own shopping experience. Households with a large gap expect high price growth for essentials like food and housing. • Consumers’ expectations for interest rates one year from now also remain high. Many people think increases in interest rates are raising the cost of living and keeping inflation high. • The growing cost of living remains the most pressing concern for consumers. High inflation and rising interest rates have had a negative financial impact on most households and are causing more households than last quarter to reduce spending. post: SEPARATE BOC Q3 SURVEY ON CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS SHOWS 55% OF CANADIANS EXPECT A RECESSION THE NEXT YEAR, UP FROM 50% IN Q2 #News #Markets #CANADIAN #BOC #live post: Canada Business Outlook At Weakest Level Outside Recessions - Canada Firms See Fewer Hiring Shortages, Lower Wage Gains - Consumer Expectations For Wage Growth Reach A Record High
- From bankofcanada.ca|Jun 30, 2023
Results from the second-quarter 2023 Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys from April through June 2023 show that firms continue to anticipate weak sales growth ahead. Nevertheless, businesses reported that their indicators of domestic demand have moved up compared with a year ago as uncertainty about the path of future interest rates and concerns of a recession fade. Although firms’ price-setting behaviour is gradually shifting closer to what it was before the pandemic, businesses continue to expect wage and price increases to be larger than normal. • Businesses continue to expect weak sales growth. For firms tied to housing and consumer discretionary spending, elevated interest rates are dampening their outlook. However, many businesses noted that their indicators of domestic demand are up slightly compared with a year ago. This change is tied to several factors, including:Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2023 Inflation expectations for one to two years ahead have come down again but remain well above their levels from before the COVID?19 pandemic. Consumers expect the growth of some goods prices to slow as supply chain pressures ease. • Some people continue to think the high cost of housing and heightened government spending are important factors keeping inflation above target. The increasing cost of living is the most pressing concern for consumers. Along with elevated interest rates, it continues to constrain most households’ spending. • Homeowners who are planning to renew their mortgage over the next two years and who expect a significant hike in their mortgage payments are likely to plan spending cuts. In contrast, many low-income households are already buying only necessities, leaving little room for further cuts to their spending. post at 10:32am:
*BANK OF CANADA BUSINESS INDICATOR FALLS TO -2.2 IN 2Q FROM -1.1 *CANADA BUSINESS OUTLOOK SOURS AGAIN TO WEAKEST SINCE Q3 2020 *BOC: ONE THIRD OF FIRMS & HALF OF CONSUMERS EXPECT RECESSION
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