AU RBA Rate Statement

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent. Inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025, and information since the beginning of this year confirms that some of the increase reflected greater capacity pressures. The latest data show that headline and underlying inflation are still too high. Oil prices have eased in recent weeks, although energy and most related commodity prices remain higher than they were prior to the conflict in the Middle East. There are signs that ...

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent. Inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025, and information since the beginning of this year confirms that some of this increase reflected greater capacity pressures. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel and related commodity prices, which are already adding to inflation. There are early signs that many firms experiencing cost pressures are looking to increase prices ...

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10 per cent. While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025. Information since the February meeting suggests that some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation. Short-term measures of inflation expectations have already risen. As a result, the Board judged that there is a material risk that inflation will remain above target for longer than previously anticipated. Higher capacity pressures reflect, in part, the greater momentum in demand in the latter part of 2025. Growth in private demand strengthened substantially more than was expected in mid-2025, although the composition of that growth surprised in the December quarter. Business investment was above expectations and consumption was below expectations. Meanwhile, growth in unit labour costs declined. More recently, the unemployment rate has been a little lower than expected and measures of labour underutilisation remain at low rates. Activity and prices in the housing market grew strongly over the past year, although housing price growth moderated somewhat at the start of 2026. Financial conditions have tightened a little this year, but the extent to which monetary policy is restrictive is uncertain. Credit is readily available to both households and businesses and the effects of interest rate reductions in 2025 are yet to flow through fully to aggregate demand, prices and wages. The exchange rate, money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen over the past month. In large part, higher interest rates reflect expectations for the path of monetary policy, which have risen in Australia and most other advanced economies in response to the expected inflationary implications of the conflict in the Middle East. There are material uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation and the extent to which monetary policy is restrictive. Globally, the conflict in the Middle East poses substantial risks in both directions. A longer or more severe conflict could put further upward pressure on global energy prices; this will push up near-term inflation and could also increase inflation further out if it impairs supply capacity or price rises get built into longer term inflation expectations. Higher prices and prolonged uncertainty may cause growth to be lower in Australia’s major trading partners and also in Australia. Just in | RBA Reports Significant Decline in Inflation Since 2022 Peak, Yet Notable Increase Observed in Second Half of 2025. Just in | RBA Reports Slight Tightening of Financial Conditions, Uncertainty Remains Over Monetary Policy's Restrictiveness. Reserve Bank of Australia: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has driven fuel prices sharply higher, which could further boost inflation if sustained. Reserve Bank of Australia: The Board concluded that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time, with risks increasingly tilted to the upside.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent. While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025. The Board has been closely monitoring the economy and judges that some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures. As a result, the Board considers that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time. Capacity pressures reflect, in part, the greater momentum in demand seen in recent months. Growth in private demand has strengthened substantially more than expected, driven by both household spending and investment. Activity and prices in the housing market are also continuing to pick up. Financial conditions eased over 2025 and it is uncertain whether they remain restrictive. Credit is readily available to both households and businesses and the effects of earlier interest rate reductions are yet to flow through fully to aggregate demand, prices and wages. More recently, the exchange rate, money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen following a rise in market expectations for the cash rate. Various indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain a little tight and that they have stabilised in recent months, in line with the pick-up in momentum in economic activity. The unemployment rate has been a little lower than expected and measures of labour underutilisation remain at low rates. Growth in the Wage Price Index has eased from its peak, but broader measures of wages growth continue to be strong and growth in unit labour costs remains high. There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic acti Breaking | RBA Projects CPI Inflation at 4.2% for Q2 2024, Gradually Declining to 2.6% by Q2 2028. Just in | RBA Reports Stabilization of Tight Labour Market Conditions in Recent Months RBA highlights that recent data show inflationary pressures have strengthened, driven by higher private demand and capacity pressures. RBA says today’s policy decision was unanimous.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent. While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it has picked up more recently. The Board’s judgement is that some of the recent increase in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors and there is uncertainty about how much signal to take from the monthly CPI data given it is a new data series. Nevertheless, the data do suggest some signs of a more broadly based pick-up in inflation, part of which may be persistent and will bear close monitoring. Economic activity continues to recover. Growth in private demand has strengthened, driven by both consumption and investment. Activity and prices in the housing market are also continuing to pick up. Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year, credit is readily available to both households and businesses and the effects of earlier interest rate reductions are yet to flow through fully to demand, prices and wages. On the other hand, money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen more recently. Various indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain a little tight. The unemployment rate has risen gradually over the past year and employment growth has slowed. However, measures of labour underutilisation remain at low rates, surveyed measures of capacity utilisation are above their long-run average and business surveys and liaison *RBA LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET AT 3.60%; EST. 3.60% *RBA: INFLATION HAS PICKED UP MORE RECENTLY *RBA: EMPLOYMENT GROWTH SLOWED *RBA: RISKS TO INFLATION HAVE TILTED TO THE UPSIDE RBA notes that while global economic risks are substantial, the effect on growth and trade in Australia’s major trading partners has so far been limited.

Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and potential supply closer towards balance. More recently, however, inflation has picked up. Trimmed mean inflation was 1.0 per cent in the September quarter and 3.0 per cent over the year, up from 2.7 per cent over the year in the June quarter. This was materially higher than expected at the time of the August Statement on Monetary Policy. Headline inflation rose sharply to 3.2 per cent over the year in the September quarter, a large part of which was expected given the cessation of electricity rebates in a number of states. The Board’s judgement is that some of the increase in underlying inflation in the September quarter was due to temporary factors. The central forecast in the November Statement on Monetary Policy, which is based on a technical assumption of one more rate cut in 2026, has underlying inflation rising above 3 per cent in coming quarters before settling at 2.6 per cent in 2027. RBA: Central forecast November statement anticipates underlying inflation rising above 3 per cent in coming quarters before settling at 2.6 per cent in 2027. RBA: Various indicators suggest that labor market conditions remain tight Australian GDP expected to remain near 2% annually over the next three years, says RBA.