AU Cash Rate

The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday cut benchmark interest rates for the first time in over four years, joining ranks with other major global central banks, as softening inflation allows room for easing policy. The RBA cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.10%, according to its statement on Tuesday. This marked the RBA’s first easing since November 2020, when the central bank cut its key rate to a record low, as it battled a slowing economy during the pandemic. “While today’s policy decision recognises the welcome progress on ...

A clear majority of economists believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates at its next board meeting, but they are less convinced than market pricing suggests. Out of 32 Australian economists surveyed by AAP, 25 expected the RBA to drop its cash rate target by 25 basis points on Tuesday, bringing an end to 15 months with no change to monetary policy. Expectations for a cut have ratcheted up in recent weeks, following a softer-than-expected December quarter CPI print that brought annual underlying inflation close to the RBA's ...

The US threat of aluminum and steel tariffs and reciprocal tariffs initially shook the markets, but the implementation at some future date gives the impression that the threats are negotiating ploys helped take away the sting. In his first term, Trump converted some of the tariffs to quotas, and that one scenario for the likely outcome now. Still there is great uncertainty of the US intent and strategy. For its part, the greenback finished last week lower against all the G10 currencies but the Japanese yen. It is not coincidental ...

The market is pricing in the first 25bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next week on 18 February. While this is in line with our view and we place a 60% probability to it, we think the decision to cut or pause will be a close one – and it’s therefore not a done deal. Key to our thinking is that the wage pressures have eased more than expected and household consumption growth has been weaker than expected, which should give the RBA more comfort to ease. However, the unemployment rate is still below the central bank’s ...

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold rates at 4.35% on Tuesday according to all 30 economists in the latest Reuters poll, so the focus will be on any shift in its restrictive policy stance. The Australian economy remains resilient, and while CPI did fall to 2.8% in Q3, within the RBA's 2%-3% target band for the first time since 2021, core inflation remains elevated. The jobless rate has remained between 4.0% and 4.2% since April, despite migration rising rapidly, with the employment participation rate at an all-time high ...