Legend
- High Impact Expected
- Med Impact Expected
- Low Impact Expected
- Non-Economic
Revision
- Green NumberBetter than forecast -or- revised better
- Red NumberWorse than forecast -or- revised worse
- m/mMonth Over Month
- q/qQuarter Over Quarter
- y/yYear Over Year
- K Thousand
- M Million
- B Billion
- T Trillion
UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y
It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer;
Data represents the 3-month moving average compared to the same period a year earlier. A figure that excludes bonuses is also released, but not included for lack of significance. Source changed series calculation formula as of Jan 2010;
- UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y Graph
- History
| Expected Impact / Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 4.4% | 4.0% |
4.4% |
| May 19, 2026 | 4.1% | 3.8% |
3.9% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 3.8% | 3.6% |
4.1% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | 4.2% | 4.6% |
4.6% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 4.7% | 4.6% |
4.8% |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 4.7% | 4.4% |
4.9% |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
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- UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y News
From ons.gov.uk|Jun 18, 2026|3 commentsEstimates for payrolled employees in the UK fell by 138,000 (0.5%) between April 2025 and April 2026, and decreased by 53,000 (0.2%) between March and April 2026. This is based on administrative data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). When looking at February to April 2026, the period comparable with our Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, the number of payrolled employees fell by 103,000 (0.3%) over the year and by 31,000 (0.1%) over the quarter. The early estimate of payrolled employees for May 2026 decreased by 119,000 (0.4%) on ...
From ons.gov.uk|May 19, 2026Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK fell by 104,000 (0.3%) between March 2025 and March 2026, and decreased by 28,000 (0.1%) between February and March 2026. This is based on administrative data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). When looking at January to March 2026, the period comparable with our Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, the number of payrolled employees fell by 94,000 (0.3%) over the year and by 20,000 (0.1%) over the quarter. The early estimate of payrolled employees for April 2026 decreased by 210,000 (0.7%) ...
From ons.gov.uk|Apr 21, 2026|1 commentEstimates for payrolled employees in the UK fell by 74,000 (0.2%) between February 2025 and February 2026, and decreased by 6,000 (0.0%) between January and February 2026. This is based on administrative data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). When looking at December 2025 to February 2026, the period comparable with our Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, the number of payrolled employees fell by 87,000 (0.3%) over the year and by 9,000 (0.0%) over the quarter. The early estimate of payrolled employees for March 2026 decreased by ...
From ons.gov.uk|Mar 19, 2026|1 commentEstimates for payrolled employees in the UK fell by 96,000 (0.3%) between January 2025 and January 2026, but increased by 6,000 (0.0%) between December 2025 and January 2026. This is based on administrative data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). When looking at November 2025 to January 2026, the period comparable with our Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, the number of payrolled employees fell by 109,000 (0.4%) over the year and by 31,000 (0.1%) over the quarter. The early estimate of payrolled employees for February 2026 ...
From think.ing.com|Feb 17, 2026Our base case is for further gradual attrition in job numbers, rather than a sharper deterioration. The public sector, which saw staffing numbers rise 0.6% last year, is likely to be less of an offset to private-sector weakness this year, given more muted increases in departmental spending. What about unemployment? BoE hawks would point to the sharp drop in net migration over recent months as an argument that the jobs market could re-tighten over the coming months. That remains a risk. But we think the significant increase in ...
From ons.gov.uk|Feb 17, 2026|17 commentsEstimates for payrolled employees in the UK fell by 121,000 (0.4%) between December 2024 and December 2025, and decreased by 6,000 (0.0%) between November 2025 and December 2025. This is based administrative data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). When looking at October to December 2025, the period comparable with our Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, the number of payrolled employees fell by 130,000 (0.4%) over the year and by 46,000 (0.2%) over the quarter. The early estimate of payrolled employees for January 2026 decreased ...
From think.ing.com|Jan 20, 2026|1 commentHere's what the latest UK jobs report tells us: Unemployment stayed at 5.1%, though we had thought it might temporarily dip back. That’s up from 4.4% early last year. Private-sector payrolls fell another 55,000, a fairly chunky number, albeit one that might get revised up. Employment outside of government was down more than a percentage point in 2025. In (slightly) better news, the redundancy rate dipped in November; fears towards the end of last year that layoff notifications to the government had picked up also appear to have been ...
From ons.gov.uk|Jan 20, 2026Estimates for payrolled employees based on administrative data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) in the UK fell by 155,000 (0.5%) between November 2024 and November 2025, and decreased by 33,000 (0.1%) between October 2025 and November 2025. When looking at September to November 2025, the period comparable with our Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, the number of payrolled employees fell by 135,000 (0.4%) over the year and by 43,000 (0.1%) over the quarter. The early estimate of payrolled employees for December 2025 decreased by ...
| Released on Jun 18, 2026 |
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| Released on May 19, 2026 |
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| Released on Apr 21, 2026 |
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| Released on Mar 19, 2026 |
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| Released on Feb 17, 2026 |
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| Released on Jan 20, 2026 |
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