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- paddlepip replied Jul 22, 2016
These spikes are fairly extreme that's for sure.
- paddlepip replied Jul 1, 2016
The old permanently high plateau. That didn't end so well last time.
- paddlepip replied Apr 22, 2016
Extremely high correlation currently, although they can and do break down. I agree with your appraisal of the Aus economic situation. This up move probably had more to do with speculative plays on commodities / interest rates than future ...
- paddlepip replied Apr 21, 2016
There she goes.
- paddlepip replied Apr 21, 2016
Seems to me that higher oil seems to be having less of an effect on the Aussie in this Asian session. Popped a few small shorts on @ 0.7810. Could be dead wrong though.
- paddlepip replied Apr 15, 2016
That's a gloomy outlook. Still, with Aus private debt at all time highs, an upward move in rates would be painful. And we don't call them "taxes" anymore, the new lingo is 'revenue measures'. Probably worth remembering that China is borrowing like ...
- paddlepip replied Apr 4, 2016
Must say I was impressed with it when I used it for a few months (at an academic institution). Bit clunky but a shitload of info all in the one spot, almost anything you can think of. I would not fork out 25k a year for it though.
- paddlepip replied Apr 4, 2016
Well wheeler caught us off-guard last rate drop for the Kiwi (which is now trading well above where it was beforehand - oops). Maybe they'll do the ol' one-two and move in cahoots with each other. Here are the daily zero coupon yield curves from ...
- paddlepip replied Mar 18, 2016
Well, don't fight the trend etc etc... But I'm going short. Interest rates in Aus are higher than most, employment results were fantastic (and pulled out of someone's ___), some bastard is buying (or covering) a lot of iron, oil, copper... even the ...
- paddlepip replied Mar 15, 2016
In one sense it's maybe negative that they seem to feel that they need to react. Or the market wanted more? The ¥ appreciation after their -ve rate event wasn't very pretty. With their ETF purchases (now an extra 10%?) must admit I scratch my a head ...
- paddlepip replied Mar 7, 2016
Get the same feeling something is around the corner. Base / precious metals (and oil) have rallied pretty hard, but i get the distinct impression it'll be short lived. Today's CH data was awful, and I suspect (guess) the rally in gold is positioning ...
- paddlepip replied Feb 1, 2016
Well done to Germany in the Australian Open. Was a great match. First win since Steffi Graf! My bucks are on the bund having a little retrace, so inadvertently I hope the DAX rallies.
- paddlepip replied Dec 29, 2015
Going for a small long @ 1.4829.
- paddlepip replied Nov 4, 2015
The last few weeks (on several indices), statistically speaking, have been unprecedented. Remaining short. But what do I know...
- paddlepip replied Nov 4, 2015
holding the fort.. keeping shorts
- paddlepip replied Nov 4, 2015
Gone are the days where economies drive markets. Now (well.. for some years) it appears the attempt is to drive markets to spur economies... It might not continue to work (I haven't seen an example where it has). If it does work (it appears these ...
- paddlepip replied Nov 3, 2015
Could be right there stylinex. ASX200 isn't joining the party at all. What a dog. For those interested (not related to DAX at all) here's Australia's term structure of interest rates. You can see how bond investors got yesterday's rate decision ...
- paddlepip replied Nov 3, 2015
If we do the stats, the last few weeks have been unprecedented. That goes for DAX, EUR50, S&P500 and dow etc (not asx200 interestingly enough, admittedly somewhat commodities driven.. mainly banks drive that index though). This was spurred by ...
- paddlepip replied Nov 3, 2015
I agree no doubt. One must get in early for swing trades though imho (jump in at elevated prices on low volume, and perhaps be prepared for a little heat). There was talk of Draghi saying he might consider buying stocks? (did I hear that correctly? ...