History tells us that people fail to appreciate the effect of compounding. So yes, maybe not in trouble yet, but that time is approaching at an exponential rate, and the US is not prepared for it. I think there is some anger at Germany, but equally, ...

Can the Euro survive?

Well Germany and France are quite strong players in the EU, yes. However, if you're in the UK, you're largely out of their control. I think some countries will need to leave the EU, but it will survive in some form for a long time. So the currency ...

Can the Euro survive?

He said that I misunderstood, so he is doing something other than going long 1 contract and short 1 contract the same instrument. But I stand by the fact that long 1, short 1 of the same instrument is flat. It doesn't matter how or why you got there ...

Do you believe this market is random?

When you are referring to fractal, do you just mean swing highs and lows? If so, why do say that they can't be used in trading a trend?

Using fractals as an exit 'take profit' point

Sure. No arguments from me. Orders move price. If there are sufficient sell orders to overcome a mass of buy orders then price will go down. Anyway, nice chatting to some fellow traders. Good luck all.

Technical Analysis Fallacy

That's fine. Yes just because it held one time doesn't mean it will hold the next time. But then that's likely to be the first type of support I mentioned. There were orders there. The orders had an effect, but they're filled now. There may be no ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Well even though I disagree on the support resistance point, I think there's merit to what you say. People consider different kinds of things to be support and resistance. For instance it's part of human nature to huddle together in a sense. If ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Yeah I don't think it's good to use a chart in a way such as pin bar at low, take the long. This is fraught with danger and is very timeframe dependent. It's about understanding what traders are trying to do. Understanding whether they're ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Interesting stuff. I use a mixture of behavioural finance and some really old ideas on trading that date back many decades. But it certainly uses some price action as part of that.

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Do you use the FX future as a proxy for the spot volume or tick volume or do you have access to a platform showing spot volume?

Technical Analysis Fallacy

How is it working for you? As long as it works and continues to work, that's the main thing. Nobody can take that away from you.

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Even if we consider the CHF and central bank intervention it is still done by orders. I think it was EURCHF and the CB said they wouldn't let it go below 1.2000 if I remember it correctly. The market did test this level a few times, but couldn't get ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

I don't understand your question. Could explain it a bit more clearly? Which two instruments are we talking about EUR/USD and USD/CHF ... or something else?

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Agreed. In fact news is probably a good point for the other thread about whether the market is random or not. After all, for those who think it is completely random, how do they explain why volatility will dramatically increase around important news ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

There are a multitude of reasons. Someone may actually need to exchange this money just as you exchange money when you go on holiday, except in much larger size. Someone may be speculating. Another may be market making. A bank could be hedging an ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

lol, yeah people doin't like it when you point it out. You can show plenty of examples where price moved the opposite direction to what the news would suggest, but the usual get out clause is 'it was priced in'.

Technical Analysis Fallacy

But that's exactly what I said. Did you mean something else?

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Sure, news can have an effect. It affects what people think and in turn they adjust their orders. And since orders can move the price, news plays a role. However, good news doesn't necessarily move the price up and bad news doesn't necessarily move ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Sounds like you have had a bad experience with some, although I hope not with me I think many people fail, because it is very hard. And to make themselves feel better, it's more palatable to believe that it can't be done. I'm sure we both know ...

Do you believe this market is random?

Long 1 EURUSD contract and short 1 EURUSD contract is flat.

Do you believe this market is random?