You don't think I know what fat tails are? Come on LloydOz. Indeed it is, I have a separate thread called 'Metals (data) Mining'. lol

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

What is it you do?

Private Island Traders

Another slow and steady sell-off today, not the kind of action you get around a bottom. At the rate we're going we might dip below 3,000 SPX, maybe more like 2,800 even.

Private Island Traders

The VIX peaked at 26.35 today. That really isn't too high and doesn't reflect any panic. I could see the VIX going up to 40 from here... UVXY has been the place to be. It was up almost 30% today and up about 50% over the past week.

Private Island Traders

Welcome back detector!

Private Island Traders

The effect of demographics on the economy has long been an interest of mine. The idea has merit, but I'm skeptical of being able to make economic predictions based on demographics. I'm aware of one guy who's made a career out of his demographics ...

Macro Talk

Thanks Vorenzd, I didn't realize 130K was the magic number that keeps unemployment steady. That's some great info to have. That's interesting you see wage growth as a source of GDP growth. I suppose it's true that higher wage growth would ...

Macro Talk

I completely agree with you. Targeting high MPC segments would result in a higher government spending multiplier, but infrastructure is more likely and much more politically acceptable.

Macro Talk

Thanks for the feedback. GLD only closed up .9% so not a particularly remarkable day. Regarding accuracy though, I'll doublecheck my numbers when I get home later. 1.1% would be roughly in the top 12% of biggest gains. I agree with you LloydOz ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Currently gold is up 1.17% since Friday's close. I decided to do a quick study to see if gold advancing more than 1.1% in a day implied it would continue higher 1, 5 and 30 days into the future. As it turns out, big one day gains in gold DO NOT ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

This really is a great way of looking at GDP. The basic GDP equation is taught in ECO 1001 in college here, but few people really use it and that's a shame I think. As explained earlier, I have a little different way of looking at GDP but I still ...

Macro Talk

Welcome back Vorenzd! Thank you for your post on the LEI. I'm curious, what are your thoughts on US labor? Weakness in the labor market has been my main concern, although indicators like the yield curve are alarming too. Here's how I'm looking at ...

Macro Talk

I think the coronavirus is weighing on the yen. Japan has the most infections after China and I think traders are pricing in the coronavirus slowing their economy. If so the BOJ might act and push down the yen so the divergence between the yen and ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

My pleasure Grish. Interactive Brokers would be my choice for futures or ETFs.

Does a ZERO spread Gold Broker Exist?

Kevin Muir's arguing the weak yen is due to the Japanese economy imploding so I think the divergence makes sense in this case.

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Why not trade futures or ETFs instead? Then you won't need to worry about spreads.

Does a ZERO spread Gold Broker Exist?

Ok, unemployment claims are up again tomorrow. Last week the Holt model was the best, here's what it's forecasting this week: Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95 206476.2 184821 228131.5 173357.4 239595 I've also been playing around with ets() which ...

High Impact Events Trading... Gold & Copper

I'm playing around with forecasting in R and thought I'd see what I could come up with for metals. The function I used automatically creates a model based on factors like trend and seasonality. Here's what it's forecasting for the next 100 days in ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread