Euro reached daily high, a pullback is expected in the late U.S. session - the last leg of Gartley pattern. closed Sep long and turned to short now. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

a Gartley pattern is forming. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

69% probability that Euro ends up avg. 27pips. daily upper range has 25pips to go, expecting will reach 1.1705 (spot) and 1.1750 (Sep contract) image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

7/30/2018 session3: no news on Euro this Monday. very narrow divergence zone. image CFTC combined Net U.S. Dollar position reached new high last week. image Net Euro position increased slightly. image Source: Reuters

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

7/27/2018 session4 recap: market already priced robust U.S. GDP data in dollar since yesterday, sell the facts was the main theme after 0830 est. but the move is slowing in the late session. image closed positions, first real trade this week - ...

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

7/26/2018 session3 recap: finally closed my last lot of Euro - i was holding it for a whole week. 7/27/2018 session4: tend to long as it offers better risk reward ratio. AND Euro rises on every Friday since last month. i did not see this last week, ...

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

this is truly a volatile week for Euro. usually it will be consistent during the week. Green bars: trend-up Red bars: divergence Dark Brown: trend-down Navy blue dots: daily trend at market close image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

reached the lower range. closed half positions. image Update: 1211 est Euro dropped 20pips more as market sentiment was changed. and the blockage of qualcomm deal will escalate trade war. image image Source: Reuters

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

7/26/2018 session3: Euro had no clear divergence area in last 2 days. and today it has no divergence at all, suggesting a big move ahead. image it already has enough buffer for my short. for 0745 est ECB Press Conference, it will be another story. ...

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

7/25/2018 session3 recap: Euro lifted as U.S.-EU agree to reduce tariffs. Source: Reuters image levels of short were not good, but still held the position.

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

candle bar statistics today. 66% chance up 0.38% at close. 34% chance down, at the average of -0.28%. image probabilities varies meaningfully on the slight change of volatility. so there is quite no difference between 2/3 and 1/3. forget the news ...

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

ECB Press Conference tomorrow. Markets expect that othing will be changed. Source: ING image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

7/25/2018 session3: another quite day, no news in Euro zone. thus the reference area for today helps very little. image very likely will be around the narrowed red box in the next couple of hours. image tend to short, as a strong dollar will be ...

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

Euro is relatively weak base on my eye observation on tick stream. 20 more pips down will confirm the weak Euro before Thursday.

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

7/24/2018 session3 recap: what-if scenarios: Euro up at close: 24% down at close: 76% profit range is narrow on Tuesday, risk is low, however, Euro is still in the battle zone of last week. image took part of profit and done for today. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

up and down in the area for multiple times. this time would probably stay below the red "line" at close. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

7/24/2018 session3: very narrow range of red box today. suggesting a big move on either side. image hold a single lot of short. daily candle analysis: image update: 0335 est after France & Germany PMI data. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

An example of box theory: image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

surely dollar is weakened after CNBC and twiter comments. however the rising 2-year T-Note yield tells a different story. image red box today. still get chance to leave the divergence zone in U.S session. image

Swing Trading on Gold and FX

7/23/2018 session4 recap: today is almost finished. probably will stay in the divergence zone at close. typical Monday. the rescue trade did well. image statistically it can go deep a little bit further. image there are two more things added in ...

Swing Trading on Gold and FX