literally no one said that. Seems like you’re hell bent on taking a 40% loss to 100. stop, recover, demo and save your ammo

Please help, 40% drawdown

At Bridgewater if anyone came up with an investment idea, the audience were encouraged to rip into it. If it still stood sound after attack, it was a buy. FF would be so much better if personal attacks were left out of it. So let’s go. I’m playing ...

XRP (Ripple)

BUSTED! don't let the door hit your arse on the way out will you.

Quitting Forex

Fun fact. I saw Kriel, the founder of IoT/ ITPM about 15 years back in a huge FX expo. He was busy telling the world that you could day trade FX for a few hours daily and become rich and it was so easy, any muppet could do it. Selling over-priced ...

Quitting Forex

Nice idea but badly done. You get why this won’t work right? Made by programmers not traders. And crazy pricing. And no free trial lol. Even Bloomberg offers that. Neither BB or Eikon offer out the box models so it’s still excel and an API if you ...

Fundamental analysis platforms like edgefinder

Sounds a tad alarmist. What's happening speeds up divesting of dollars but only relatively speaking. It's already happening but it's complex to do, and there's no ready-made alternative. So it's the flow that changes, but still timeline of decades. ...

Preparing for the post USD as the world reserve currency

Oculus, only as my name was dragged in - what *have* you been looking at for the past 3 years? Pi? Origins of candlesticks? Expected trajectories divided into 6 (3 up 3 down)? All decent avenues of research to name but three. This is the esoteric ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

On average you post once a year, you're the epitome of restraint. Nice gpt thread.

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

you were easily unearthed What you found may be useful but I don't use probabilistic models at all tbh. Not because they've no value; simply because I terrorised myself reading Prado & Chan and made a solemn vow to never, ever compete in ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Wolfram, with a username like yours, I'm sure you you're just taking the piss and I'm 99% certain you already know. To create random data that resembles asset prices you need to use a garch model because volatility clusters. And the mere existence ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

you already had a ton of advice about online mentors, then you went and traded ICT. I don’t want to sound harsh but how long did you spend doing due diligence first?

My Biggest Problem

9 years later! But bang on, yes

Calculating probability of losing streaks

Precisely like this.

Impact of option expiry on a currency

Fundamental — I just told you. Jump over to a stocks site, not here though. Gann never published his strategy, only intimated it. Had a sharpe that’d measure over 20 if the accounts can be believed. Predicted both time and price, left a series of ...

Nine square? Time cycles? Trading with Math?

Think about value of that kind of discovery, then think if it’s likely to be available by a quick Google and theres your answer. if you don’t mind me saying I think it’s important to play to your strengths. You will obviously find chart reading ...

Nine square? Time cycles? Trading with Math?

I get you, I mean overfitting to your results, but I had misunderstood exactly what you were doing to be fair (you need a summary page!). In which case, nice idea - congrats. It's a tough one to test so the proof is in the doing, but I respect the ...

The Just Calculator for Optimal Money Management

Interesting… but if size is constantly adjusted to most recent performance you risk overfitting (fat tails, vol clustering). This seems very theoretical and I suspect in practice it’d fold quite quickly. Have you any real world validation?

The Just Calculator for Optimal Money Management

Not at all. you’re confusing two separate methods. One is about group behaviour and the other is about flow. Both are — or should be - based on observation and maths. Just because hope and pray is popular doesn’t make it right. re flow you can’t see ...

Real breakout vs fakeout, possible to identify them?

not generally in FX, happens once or twice daily I grant you usually news releases, but the general direction isn't determined by depth of orders, otherwise an EBS order book would see you millions in no time. It won't btw.

Real breakout vs fakeout, possible to identify them?

Yep, you're right. It's about measuring the duration, strength and direction of a trend from birth to death which leads to prediction of same - exactly how Honma did it

Real breakout vs fakeout, possible to identify them?