Trying times for long-term trend-following. The collapse of the long-term US stock indices uptrend has disrupted not just the Dow long strategy but also many long-term forex chart trends and currency macro-trends. So, the USD is weak but ...

The struggles of a Forex trader

It will remain the regret of my trading career for a long time that I was not short EUR/CHF for this event. There were repeated bearish signals and shorting opportunities throughout 2014. Hey ho..........

Black swan events / CHF Peg

No long-term TA traders should have been long EUR/CHF when this event occurred. The charts had been saying for weeks that only further falls were to be expected from price. The simple principle of trading what you see rather than what you think very ...

Black swan events / CHF Peg

Yes, 9-11 was a genuine Black Swan. But again, no trader should have been long US equities on 9-10, let dumb money pick up the bill for these things. There have been some market flash crashes in recent years, but I'm not sure how significant they ...

Black swan events / CHF Peg

Take a look at this account - url Things are not always as simple as the economics text books say they should be.

Black swan events / CHF Peg

Black Swans can't be predicted but they can be anticipated. And by the way there are also positive Black Swans as well as negative, which is all that Taleb was writing about. For example, for long-term trend-following traders, the EUR/CHF event in ...

Black swan events / CHF Peg

Blimey, there are some good points in there. This is way better than the pathetic consumer warnings usually attached to the "click here to start trading now" buttons. The best ones concern what to do - firstly put some decent money into this game, ...

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

Its not a conspiracy, that would imply a conscious covert effort to subvert the natural and lawful progression. but protecting themselves from public criticism and maintaining stakeholder support is what civil servants do. It is the first rule of ...

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

Civil servants put up regulations to protect themselves and their politician bosses from consumer criticism, not to protect consumer interests from damaging impacts. In this case, its also possible that some migration of funds will take place within ...

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

My spreadbetting firm offered this solution from some point during the ESMA consultation period. You sign away some protections in order to continue trading as currently. I'm weighing it up.

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

I'm sure the industry expected the proposals would go through - I did. So I guess the "bad" news is already in the price.

UK online broker shares hammered by ESMA leverage proposals

ESMA definition of CFD's when their consultation opened on this included spreadbetting.

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

Yep. How annoying. Most nannying laws like this are to protect the civil servants and politicians when people do stupid stuff and then complain loudly like only stupid people really know how to. If you were making a profit, this makes it harder. If ...

FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

I understand where you're coming from. Maybe like me it also cost you years of effort and cost thousands of pounds of lost trading money to get where you are today. For this period of my trading career I am happy to post what I do, but this is not ...

searching for a strategy with RR 1:5

Trade 1 is opened at 5000. TA is used to find the SL level, and let's say this is conveniently 100pts below at 4900. Set buy order at 5100 with SL at 5000. If price falls to 4900, T1 is stopped and 100pts-worth of account capital is lost. Keep ...

searching for a strategy with RR 1:5

I've never heard of a strategy that allows 1:5 r:r off a single trade set-up using TA, though you cor SL/TP as suggested by hanover. Obviously though, that limits your return in money terms, unless you use a very large position size - but that ...

searching for a strategy with RR 1:5

A trading diary has great potential for future improvements to any system. You could say its a great investment. I log all my trades with instrument, dates entered and exited, reasons/pattern/strategy for opening and closing and gain/loss. Even this ...

personal trading diary

I agree, if we're going to be successful, the type of trading we all eventually find has to match our personality type. Trend-following suits me. But its also the only trading strategy that allows you to maximise profits by continually increasing ...

Trend following discussion

You obviously haven't talked with Master-Mind yet. Good luck with that.

The end of "science" trading strategy

Thanks Lordfx. That's what I thought it had to be, I just couldn't believe it. Anyway, great to see a long-term approach to trading rather than the 1 minute "strategies" we're usually supposed to be impressed by.

(binned per thread starter’s request) Fairly long term trend trad