The markets were down over 10% last week so today's rally doesn't come as a surprise. The question is, is the bull market still alive or was today the start of a bear market rally?

Private Island Traders

Nope, I trade longer-term and go with the prevailing fundamentals. For me to buy a dip, I need it to meet the below criteria: Fundamentals support a bull market VIX > threshold (this time it was 40) Volatility indicator gives a buy signal #1 is the ...

Private Island Traders

Thanks renNstimpy! I hold longer term and I've been getting bearish for a while so I'm not buying the dip this time... However, my volatility based indicator is giving a very strong buy signal: image

Private Island Traders

That may be a good play. The VIX hit almost 50 today so the odds of this immediate sell off getting much worse are low. I still think there’s crash risk in the afternoon though. If things get ugly then buying into the close makes a lot of sense for ...

Private Island Traders

VIX futures giving a short term buy (buy S&P, Dow, etc) signal: url

Private Island Traders

The S&P 500 is down 10.76% over the past 4 trading days. Here's every instance since 1928 that the market has been down more than 10% in 4 days, along with corresponding 5 day, 30 day, and 1 year forward returns. (Click the image and zoom in.) ...

Private Island Traders

Just a few thoughts before bed: Markets were overextended and due for a pullback anyway. If it weren't this, it would be something else. There's a decent chance we'll have some sort of government intervention before Sunday's open, whether it's a ...

Private Island Traders

That’s a great site, thanks for sharing!

Private Island Traders

Thinking more on this, there's also big upside potential since the Fed and perhaps Treasury may announce a stimulus initiative over the weekend. Going into the weekend short is risky too.

Private Island Traders

I think there’s some crash risk tomorrow. Markets are down 10% in a few days so there will be margin calls. Coronavirus is all over the news, people are panicking The coronavirus is mysterious. Like bitcoin or a tech stock in the 1990s, nobody knows ...

Private Island Traders

I closed about 10% more of my total holdings so I’m about 50% in cash now.

Private Island Traders

Yep, I agree. If you’re capitalized well enough futures are clearly the better choice.

Private Island Traders

I’m not so sure anyone will want to go into the weekend long... The price action today does look a lot like a bottom though. VIX hit nearly 37 and equities are up about 3% from the low. I’m not sure what to make of it yet and I’m reserving judgement ...

Private Island Traders

Sorry for the delay, I've needed sometime to think about what you wrote. My understanding is that in a closed economy higher real wages would have to be accompanied by a rise in productivity for it to help GDP. The thing that's puzzled me is the ...

Macro Talk

I'm an investor. I have a day job to maintain a stable income, but I do well enough through this and real estate holdings. Thanks How are you trading the VIX? Through futures? Trading VIX derivatives can get complicated and might not ...

Private Island Traders

If this were 3 years ago I'd stay long without hesitation. I'd ride out a 20% drawdown as-is, it's that potential 50% drawdown I can't stomach. My primary concern is that we're nearing a recession anyway and there's potential this puts us over the ...

Private Island Traders

Thanks detector! The 1 day average return I posted is deceiving because two of the days included in the table had over a 10% return. I actually thought my formula was wrong when I saw that, but I verified it was correct and they were 2 of ...

Private Island Traders

The S&P 500 is down 6.3% over the past two trading days. I did a study tonight to see how the market did going forward 1, 5, and 30 days when the market was down over 6% over any two day period since 2007. Here are the results: image Apparently ...

Private Island Traders

Hopefully they'll step up, but I'm doubtful. All of this week's Fed speakers have basically said they're willing to take action, but its still too early. Even Kashkari, the Fed's biggest dove, didn't support easing immediately... I expect Trump to ...

Private Island Traders

I'll be up late studying the markets tonight. Might lighten up the portfolio more tomorrow...

Private Island Traders