If we are going into a bear market / recession it’s not something that’s going to transpire over just a month. We should expect a convincing bear market rally sometime soon. I’m guessing it takes 6-18 months to play out and I expect <2,000 SPX. ...

Private Island Traders

I think it’s fair to call this a “crash” in equities.

Private Island Traders

Triple levered crude ETFs are likely to terminate tomorrow. They might be looking at a total loss or even negative NAV. Even if there’s something left the ETFs will probably terminate anyway if they drop >80% in a single day.

WTI Crude Oil Trading

One thing I really like about Bloomberg terminals is their data. They have a ton of different indicies and indicators I've never managed to find elsewhere. Aside from that, a lot of what they offer can be found elsewhere for cheaper or even free. I ...

Trading Equipment (Hardware, Software)

Oil is down 25.7% today as I type this post. I could easily see WTI going to around $20. The US government will need to provide shale subsidies or a bailout otherwise that industry is going to see a lot of bankruptcies in the near future.

WTI Crude Oil Trading

It just shows the daily change. That removes the trend like artem_t was talking about, but you wind up with a chart that's not really useful to traders. Portfolio managers tend to use this kind of analysis in an effort to quantify risk.

Probabilities in a Random Walk (Question about one CP's post)

That's a serious set up you have. Is that a Bloomberg keyboard I see?

Trading Equipment (Hardware, Software)

Black swan event in oil this weekend as the Saudis are increasing output in a price war against Russia! url I hope nobody went into the weekend long.

WTI Crude Oil Trading

Historically my favorite place to park cash has been in ultra short term corporate debt ETFs. This gives you yield with little default risk, and there's little price risk since its ultra short term debt so factors like inflation don't really matter ...

Idle Cash - Exploring the options...

That's a really good question... If I were POTUS and trying to boost the economy, I'd probably look at some of the following: Pass legislation expanding the Fed's powers to buy securities. Right now this is a legally gray area that needs to be ...

Macro Talk

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes "The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposition position. I assume that markets are always wrong." - George Soros "Losers ...

Famous Quotes for investing and trading

Well put PipMeUp! That's a wise way of looking at the markets.

Probabilities in a Random Walk (Question about one CP's post)

The Fed had an emergency rate cut today for the first time since October 8th, 2008. I'm becoming more convinced the economic expansion is done. As we already discussed, labor has been weak and now we've got an exogenous force that will hurt growth ...

Macro Talk

I completely agree. A bottom in this correction or a bear market rally seem indistinguishable at this point. Given how quickly all of this has transpired we might have another leg lower or some sideways action before a sustained uptrend resumes. ...

Private Island Traders

I admire your ability to do that. I tried too, but that's a tough timeframe to trade on.

Private Island Traders

Are you short?

Private Island Traders

Check out what Mnuchin had to say today: https://twitter.com/qtrresearch/status/1234885485450924032 So if this gets bad, they might just shut the markets down rather than allowing them to crash.

Private Island Traders

Sure could be.

Private Island Traders

Regarding differencing to remove a trend, that's literally just looking at the difference between each observation. Here's an example: Gold prices image Differenced gold prices image Both are useful, but in very different ways.

Probabilities in a Random Walk (Question about one CP's post)