Subscribed back, thanks for cleaning up So Central Banks dont move the currencies, this is important to recognize, they only prepare the game for it to move.The main market movers are commercial traders, institutions, banks, and the people.What ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Thanks, i unsubscribed from this mess, it has gone way offtopic so you just waste your time by posting here.But we need a new thread to discuss those thing propertly without these trolls destroying a good topic.I have many good ideas regarding this ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Really nice thread you made here guys, its very informative and good to see quality threads too You guys use math way beyond my level of understanding, and i respect it very much, but i have to say and please don't get offended or angry on me, ...

What Is a Trend?

Here is your evidence friend: url I suggest you to read it through, especially the Kondratiev wave which is an economic cycle which repeats itself every 50 year url It is funny how people are susceptible to all crap that you found on the ...

There is no Holy Grail

Well yes we can unpack the market more, and i can find more inefficiencies on that picture than only the hammer, but remember this is an M1 chart, and given that the broker delays, slippage , spread and stoplevel problems we cant really trade 1 pip ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Its hard to define the noise of the market and what is noise and what is not, since the noise envelops the market entirely, and makes up more than 95% of the market.So the quest is not to find and recognize the noise ,because the noise is in ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

You are right it doesn't have to if its total random, yet it does with ~55% accuracy on my big database which contains over 25 million candlesticks from all timeframes, so its way past any random noise caused by random distribution so i have to ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Oh so they are not BS now.A minute ago you said that i`m talking crap and suddently you agree with me.. because that is what i was saying from the beginning I agree with the part of M1 or M5, that is why i trade on M15 or higher. Its really ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I`m sorry but i cant see the market otherwise, its too discrete, its data comes in ticks every 1-3 seconds, which get constructed in candlesticks.Even if i look at the line chart which is smoothened by the highs and lows i still see those ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Oh, then if you think that 99% has more impact than the 1%, then why do you even bother trading? If you use indicators or other classical, yet wrong, systems, how are they predicting the price or reading the data from that random mess.If you say ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

No i`m sorry i`m not into *9999x indicators on the chart* types of systems, i try to keep things simple yet constructive and profitable.Indicators will lose in the long term thats a fact. But i think i will open my own trading system thread later ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

And how you place the stoploss then.The M1 barely moves more than the stoplevel of the pair, so that will cause you to trade negative risk reward ratios which will hurt your account after a while...?

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I never said they are totally random, because there is always some hidden inefficiency, and because of that cause, the inefficiency becomes more visible on higher timeframe than on lower because the candlesticks merge and it adds up. Just by looking ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Have you tried it or are you just talking in air?

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Wow are you a conspiracy theorist or somekind of that? Its just very funny what you are talking about here, so what if something bad happens, the absolute worst thing that can happen is that a few people will riot like back in 2008, and then they ...

There is no Holy Grail

We just prove in this thread how random is the market and why is that. So if the H1 and D1 TF's are somewhat random the M1 TF is 999999999999x more random.What makes you think you can stand a chance at M1, and with scalping which is even worse at ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Who scalps the M1 around here, it just sounds silly to me, the M1 hardly even moves more than the STOPLEVEL, you cant even put a decent stop there in some markets

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I took a statistics class back in college, and believe me it helps me out very much in trading too.

The Smoke and Mirrors of the Risk/Reward Ratio

I dont know, you can have any number of sample, but the less you have the margin of error increases almost exponentially.Here are a few links where they explain how to calculate your margin of error, but i would still recommend atleast 100 samples ...

How big of a sample size is needed?

Not all of them, some of them are yes, but if you get the cause of why that candlestick formed, then you see the pattern there, same for chart patterns but on larger view. For example, all the doji patterns are random , thats a fact, i just proved ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?