This thread starts being very interesting — Hi. I've a quite opposite point of view . The expectancy of a system, in its simplifed version, is E = w(R+1) - 1. The win/loss ratio w is a probability, therefore it is bound to be less than 1. ...

Trading Game System Discussion

By whom? RR is what the system yields in average not what you want it to produce. --You cannot ask the market 90 pips just because you want 3:1 and your SL is 30-- Let's take Thomas Demark's breakout strategy as an example. He noticed that, after ...

Trading Game System Discussion

I may misunderstand your post but I'm afraid you're mix and matching two different things. The R:R is a component of the expectancy of a system. That's nothing to do with MM. MM just multiplies the gains and the losses. MM tries to optimize the ...

Trading Game System Discussion

Actually no. You need to sell at a higher price than you buy. Regardless of the path the price follows to reach the TP. As long of course as the path doesn't cross SL first.

The Illusion of Motion

motion is useless for trading — True that matter is mainly made of void. The distance between an atom and its first eletron is huge in comparison to its size and the distance to the next atom in a molecule is even more bigger. To set ideas, if ...

The Illusion of Motion

Diogenes stood up and walked — Zeno like all ancient Greeks had no idea of infinite calculus. Riemann proved the convergence of the serie 1/2+1/4+1/8+1/16+... it equals 1. The arrows goes to the target, Achilles catches up the turtle, market ...

The Illusion of Motion

Take it as an investor would.... — Hello, Since that's a commercial EA, I guess you can't know what it does and how it does it. Let's consider this black box is a tiny fund management company; you are their only client... If possible graph ...

the big brother running to help you :)

Actually this was a joke to underline a paradox: How can you open a new position if you are already at your maximum DD? Per definition of "maximum" you cannot go any beyond ;-). Yet if you don't open a new trade how can you recover? => In short ...

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

A couple links — Hi Jairo I was also interested in the likelihood of a given drawdown using Kelly. I couldn't find anything... But you may be interested in these two links. This first one explains the generalization of the formula for several ...

Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk

Thanks for the "average reader" but one order of magnitude just changes absolutely everything! You cannot generalize from ten to one hundred. You started this thread to change people beliefs about 1:1 RRR but refuse these other people to challenge ...

1:1 Risk Reward Ratio - Why it just makes sense

That's just maths — Some "systems" (I hate this term) rely on a 1:1 RR. See Tom Demark's break-out system is a good example because profitable --at least for him--. The TP is predefined by the projection of the opposite swing through the ...

1:1 Risk Reward Ratio - Why it just makes sense

Is this really THE question? — Hi Vogon, I discovered FX only a year ago. I trade only demo to get a feeling of the market and to test ideas. So I can't consider myself a trader. I'm a computer scientist and I'm only trying to solve a puzzle ...

Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

Let's imagine the market is an irrational normal number (being PI or any other). Let's also imagine some genius finds the equivalent of the Bailey, Borwein and Plouffe formula for this "market number". You can now know if the Kth bar will be up or ...

Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

If it was a car — Hi, Imagine you bought a car last year. $20k. You sell it today. That's a used car. You get $17k. Who took the missing $3k? (here there's no broker!) The car salesman? Instead, keep the car 20 years in a garage. That's now a ...

Who gets the money from a loss trade?

You can't evaluate the standard dev of something you can't mesure — Hello Pipsgeek, Here is your major problem. How to define the signal is "correct"? Additionally it may have degrees of correctness. Not only two possibilities... You could ...

Trying to calculate the probability of an indicator being correct

No that's not what I meant. But it is not important. My first post was to point out that people reject any idea based on beliefs rather than pragmatic approch. All wrote the equivalent of "it's well known impossible (I read it on the Net/my brother ...

i want only 1 pip everyday

And you fell so easily in the trap by throwing an a priori with no explanations. I expected more flame and destruction against my post yet...[disappointed] Technically it is not impossible to achieve. For instance, you take a cross of ...

i want only 1 pip everyday

So many wrong assumptions... — This thread is only 3 page long and there are so many wrong assumptions! I don't know if such a system may exist or not. Yet I would never reject an idea based on guts feeling and wrong assumptions. - Wrong ...

i want only 1 pip everyday

Hi, I discovered FX this summer, I'm only demo trading. I definitely don't consider myself any expert :-) That was just an idea I threw in the air. I didn't expect a lot of answers. If any. As you are a live trader, I'm extremely interested in ...

S/R Area Algoritm

i had a look and must say I wasn't impressed... I checked my results and have to say that I missed two other S/R lines. There are 4 prices: 1.3373, 1.3682, 1.3823 and 1.3956. You may add 1.3893 if you lower the thresold from 2.7 to 2.5 Drawing the ...

S/R Area Algoritm