- Markets are chaotic but this doesn't mean completely random - If the probability of 10 pip stop and 10 pip tp getting hit were exactly 50%, that would be... great! The market would be a 1 dimension (price can only go up or down) isotropic random ...

Probability depending on distance

How do you define an angle in a time/price chart? 0 and pi/2 (90°) I can figure out but for the others... What is a 45° angle? 1 pip per second slope?

-45 Degree Trendline Angle In Bear Trends?

I block a little on this one. If I must trade with no greed, no fead, no impatience, no ego... But instead based on the market and only on the market. Why shall I use a strategy or a take profit (the time horizon) based on my personality instead of ...

How to rescue a losing position?

Yes, you're right. As I posted just earlier that was an idiotic idea... This is indeed perfectly exactly the very same thing. It brings nothing at all.

How to rescue a losing position?

Stupid me! That's perfectly the same as closing at a loss on M5 and taking another trade on H4.

How to rescue a losing position?

I'm wondering if this isn't the same as virtually trading a higher TF. Just thinking loud... Say a long on M5 goes against you. This position may perfectly make sense on say H4. Unfortunately you are awfully over-leveraged for the SL required for ...

How to rescue a losing position?

To me a loser is not a position that is in the red. For instance a position closed at BE (or +1pips) is a loser because it yielded no profit while a risk has been taken. This reduces the expectancy of any system: if you add zeros to an average this ...

How to rescue a losing position?

Hello, Sorry but your idea doesn't work. Not that I want be mean, nay-sayer or whatever. It's just a fact. Opening the opposite position is exactly equivalent as closing at loss. Un-hedging is exactly equivalent at opening a new position. You have ...

How to rescue a losing position?

Hi, I knew it! Kalman is rocket science! More seriously I'd like to see your code if you mind posting. I barely understand the Kalman filter and don't know matlab so I hope for comments in the source code. I'd like to understand the model you use ...

Kalman Scalping

Hi! Kelly's formula ( url ) is the solution of your equation. You may be interrested in these two threads as well: Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk url Trading Game System Discussion url

Trade Size Optimisation

Just my 2 cents: get a sheet of paper and a pen. Draw an idealized uptrend channel, a symetrical triangle, a falling wedge, a horizontal range, a bullish flag.... What can you see? Two lines with price bouncing several times on the lines and ...

Building an equity millipede

Hi, Thumb up for the trades Kelly's formula doesn't work if the outcome isn't "win X or lose Y". The generalized version is a little bit more complicated. It becomes a high degree polynomial to solve. If you have the values in pips I may ...

Calculating the most effective trade size

Hi Dagobert, Keep in mind all of this is highly theoritical because I didn't take spread, minimum tradable lot size or margin requirement into account. As Redlion said you will have variations in the performances of your system. As long as you only ...

Calculating the most effective trade size

Sure but put things in perspective. We are talking 80% DD on... a hundred bucks. Nothing harmful. Like people scratching a lotery card every week... --At least that's the way I understood the OP's question-- This said, if he really has got a 70% ...

Calculating the most effective trade size

Hi Dagobert, If I understand correctly the questions are about gamble-trading à la James Dean, "Grow fast, lose quick and leave a good looking blown account..." Question 1: Don't confuse optimal and maximal. Optimal means the best according to some ...

Calculating the most effective trade size

Hi Supertrader9! According to Kelly's formula the maximum risk is 20%. This huge value comes with a very high risk of ruin... After 5 losses the DD is almost 70% which is a crazy high risk in regard of the reward after 5 winners: only x2.49 with a ...

Trading Game System Discussion

Very honestly, should I be able to move the market to grab a high number of lots for a discounted price, I would do it with no hesitation! That's just part of the game to assess this risk as a retail trader. You can see clearly on the charts where ...

Trading Game System Discussion

Erratum — Oops my bad. That's wrong!! I was thinking in term of %frac MM... or just was tired. The risk keeps being 120 since 4x30 may be lost. The reward reduces with each attempt since we must cover the potentially accumulated losses. The ...

Trading Game System Discussion

Hi Marcmarc, That's quite hard to expose ideas on a forum, especially when it's not in your mother language... Let me try to develop. First of all sorry huge post ahead. And not a single picture I'm trying to know if one can improve a strategy by ...

Trading Game System Discussion

I didn't say the expectancy cannot be more than 1. I said "The win/loss ratio w is a probability, therefore it is bound to be less than 1." I don't quite understand the sentence "I have backtest several optimized strategy, found that scalping ...

Trading Game System Discussion