Hi! If I understand correctly, you increase the lot size after a winner and decrease it after a loser. If I'm correct, this is only good if you can prove that the trading system is highly autocorrelated with a persistent behaviour. I mean that ...

Trading Game System Discussion

Whaaoo great idea! I suppose you close when back at break even? So risking QUADRATICALLY (N²) to hope for... ZERO! Very good R:R. Do you realize at 4th level you're already down 1000pips (100+200+300+400)? Do you know the BE ...

How to rescue a losing position?

If the markets aren't Gaussian their distribution is quite symetrical, esp. FX. So at a low scale (a few pips move) you're still flipping a coin. Average Joe trades the M5. True men trade the TICK you know. He targets 20 pips no more. He isn't ...

Probability depending on distance

I'm quite bad at explaining things... First you are right on all the points. The idea is not to bet the next step is going to be up or down nor red because of a long sequence of black. That's is 50/50 per definition. Because of this 50/50 I know you ...

Probability depending on distance

Say you're in the middle of a (very big) stair. You flip a coin to know where to go. head=UP, tail=DOWN, one step at a time. After a big enough coin flipping you will have got as many heads than tails. It means you went up as much as you went down. ...

Probability depending on distance

Not exactly. Wikipedia explains it much better than I could url section One-dimensional random walk. If you read French, their explanation is clearer. It is true that markets aren't random walk but for example 7bit tried to build such a market ...

Probability depending on distance

I didn't mean to be rude against Indrek or anybody else. --Perhaps the language is for something-- if it is perceived so, apologies. They were just facts. So far any rescuing attempt only increases the risk without significantly increasing the ...

How to rescue a losing position?

If the OP asked for methods of rescuing a losing position that was certainly to use the best one, no? If rescuing has no sense therefore the best method of rescuing is to not rescue at all. Which is an answer to his/her question. None of the methods ...

How to rescue a losing position?

Let's put apart that the month is not a unit of time (not the same number of days), here you define a velocity. The velocity of the price is independent of the timeframe since at any point of time the price is obviously the same on any TF. A speed ...

-45 Degree Trendline Angle In Bear Trends?

- Markets are chaotic but this doesn't mean completely random - If the probability of 10 pip stop and 10 pip tp getting hit were exactly 50%, that would be... great! The market would be a 1 dimension (price can only go up or down) isotropic random ...

Probability depending on distance

How do you define an angle in a time/price chart? 0 and pi/2 (90°) I can figure out but for the others... What is a 45° angle? 1 pip per second slope?

-45 Degree Trendline Angle In Bear Trends?

I block a little on this one. If I must trade with no greed, no fead, no impatience, no ego... But instead based on the market and only on the market. Why shall I use a strategy or a take profit (the time horizon) based on my personality instead of ...

How to rescue a losing position?

Yes, you're right. As I posted just earlier that was an idiotic idea... This is indeed perfectly exactly the very same thing. It brings nothing at all.

How to rescue a losing position?

Stupid me! That's perfectly the same as closing at a loss on M5 and taking another trade on H4.

How to rescue a losing position?

I'm wondering if this isn't the same as virtually trading a higher TF. Just thinking loud... Say a long on M5 goes against you. This position may perfectly make sense on say H4. Unfortunately you are awfully over-leveraged for the SL required for ...

How to rescue a losing position?

To me a loser is not a position that is in the red. For instance a position closed at BE (or +1pips) is a loser because it yielded no profit while a risk has been taken. This reduces the expectancy of any system: if you add zeros to an average this ...

How to rescue a losing position?

Hello, Sorry but your idea doesn't work. Not that I want be mean, nay-sayer or whatever. It's just a fact. Opening the opposite position is exactly equivalent as closing at loss. Un-hedging is exactly equivalent at opening a new position. You have ...

How to rescue a losing position?

Hi, I knew it! Kalman is rocket science! More seriously I'd like to see your code if you mind posting. I barely understand the Kalman filter and don't know matlab so I hope for comments in the source code. I'd like to understand the model you use ...

Kalman Scalping

Hi! Kelly's formula ( url ) is the solution of your equation. You may be interrested in these two threads as well: Kelly Criterion - Optimizing risk url Trading Game System Discussion url

Trade Size Optimisation

Just my 2 cents: get a sheet of paper and a pen. Draw an idealized uptrend channel, a symetrical triangle, a falling wedge, a horizontal range, a bullish flag.... What can you see? Two lines with price bouncing several times on the lines and ...

Building an equity millipede