I'm a strong believer of big RR is better than big win/loss... But I wanted to be open mind and go a little bit beyond the obvious so I had some fun with historical data... At best you can make a small pip per day in average. And immediately forget ...

Daytrading/scalping with high leverage - my proven strategy

No he didn't say he uses 100 pips SL. He said he sizes the position so that -100 pips triggers a MC. Which to me sounds like the same. Almost... I tried to see if ever there was something in the idea, assuming a more rational MM (thus the SL).

Daytrading/scalping with high leverage - my proven strategy

Losers focus on their winners with no care for their growing losing positions. Winners do the exact opposite.

Are you willing to share your poor/ bad/ loser/ lousy system?

I agree that's gambling. I have nothing against the idea of a "Forex casino". The problem is that he said in post#1 "i trade for a living, now, after years of paradise and hell..." A pro gambler puts odds he side. He counts the cards he doesn't play ...

Daytrading/scalping with high leverage - my proven strategy

He's trading noise the entry point is totally irrelevant. Almost all the candles have a wick both size. The problem is the "almost". He says he trades 1 lot per $1000. That's $10 per pips. Even if the margin required was zero a 100 SL wipes the ...

Daytrading/scalping with high leverage - my proven strategy

With a risk of 100 pips for a reward of 2.5 pips, you need 97.56% success rate to only breakeven! The R:R is 1 against 40. One single loser kills a full month of trading (2 trades per day, 20 sessions per month). You say you trade for a living. ...

Daytrading/scalping with high leverage - my proven strategy

Well what amazes me the most isn't the 70% or 95% or whatever % losers but that 59% (so more than the half) of 8 millions trades were taken in the direction of the trend and the overall result is negative. With several millions trades the law of ...

Expectancy Management

I don't forget about Sharpe or its variant Sortino. Simply the equations are complicated enough. You are right that the more the equity curve is a straight line the better. I cannot find a better metric to the optimization problem. But lowering ...

Expectancy Management

R is the TP when SL is normalized. p is the probability of winning. Pb is NOT the probability of losing but the probability of hitting the stop after the partial profit. The proba of losing is Pa+Pb, the complement of p. So if p=0.1, Pb won't be 0.9 ...

Expectancy Management

Thanks for the pointer. I think you are refering to this: url url IHMO, and that's why I opened the thread, it's not only about MM or risk of ruin. Under-capitalization is part of the risk but the pair you trade as well. For instance I find E/U ...

Expectancy Management

Those are links to stats from 2010 for IB and FXCM. I saw more recent but didn't bookmarked. The figures don't change too much. FXCM is doing this kind of stats quite often. I think Jason Rogers was involved in the stats but not sure. You might PM ...

Expectancy Management

OANDA and FXCM have released stats about their retail traders. 70-75% of them are losing money. That's better than the 95% urban legend but still... FXCM made stats on the positions taken by their losing traders. Surprisingly it appeared that more ...

Expectancy Management

Gumrai is right there is no difference at all. When you short against your long with same lot size, you only freeze the PnL of the position. Your net position is 0 lots. You virtually close the long. The profit you believe banking with the short is ...

Hedging: I don't get it

Kalman requires a good model of the underlaying process. What model do you have in mind? I searched if it is was possible to estimate the model itself at the same time as the filter does its job. I found you can, that's called Dual Extended Kalman ...

Kalman Scalping

Hi! It depends on the systems. More precisely on their correlation (the correlation of their results). If two systems are highly correlated they double the risk (you more or less double the leverage). So you give them half the money. If they are ...

Trading Game System Discussion

Too far off topic but I think it's not true for a strategy like "Buy & Hold". But I admit it's vicious. It's because B&H has... no average!! Hmm yep... But I keep things separated. A magnifying glass doesn't change the written text you read. You can ...

Trading Game System Discussion

That's the very simplified version.... The expectancy is, per definition, the sum of all the possible independent outcomes mulitplied by their respective probability. (I wish I could write math formula in the posts) No confusion here. We perfectly ...

Trading Game System Discussion

But just in case you find it... they added a green zero!

Trading Game System Discussion

What do you mean by this? Do you mean that whatever the MM, if the expectancy of a system is 0, it cannot be made positive? If that's what you mean, the proof is rather easy. Or do you mean that if the trades are independent you can never win? Here ...

Trading Game System Discussion