Desk still short AUDNZD, but looking to take some off going into weekend. Doing well currently, +70points, and the odd one or two in swaps.

Cross Market Analysis

Morgan stanley G10 desk commentary.

Cross Market Analysis

G10 Daily THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE FX TRADING DESK AND IS NOT RESEARCH MATERIAL er JPY – Big breakout for Usd/Jpy yesterday. GDP helped and the rise in US Yields was exactly what the trade needed. There were offers all the way up, mainly from locals ...

Cross Market Analysis

it certainly looks that way. USDJPY will just follow whatever the US 10 year yield will do... so keep an eye on that.

Cross Market Analysis

our spot desk is still long (I'm less sure they should be given the move today, but hey) but their rationale is that this is all one big fakeout and currently being priced into the market is a very hawkish Fed, which is unlikely according to our ...

Cross Market Analysis

well, its more of a joke amongst people who follow goldman trade ideas, because a lot of the time they are perfectly wrong. The exact wording from them was this - GS: EUR from NY trading - EURUSD down 30 pips post GDP to a low so far of 1.3370. We ...

Cross Market Analysis

indeed, Goldman just put out a sell recommendation at 1.3375... down here at the lows!! so we know how this is going to end...

Cross Market Analysis

sent to mailing list just now... posting here as well. From Deutsche bank: The FOMC statement falls into the realm of low probability high impact event – i.e. unlikely to surprise, but if it does, it has some obvious capacity to have considerable ...

Cross Market Analysis

* I should say, I won't be doing this as I'm not at my desk tomorrow, but seems like a decent play to me. Tech desk also sees potentially large CAD weakness, and quickly... 1.0950 area...

Cross Market Analysis

Game plan tomorrow from the london spot prop desk... Keeping short AUDNZD Buying EURUSD (at mkt 1.3431) looking for a squezze thru intraday highs (1.3445), stops at 1.3450 look vulnerable from the levered shorts that have built past few weeks. Use ...

Cross Market Analysis

I would agree, leveraged community and real money both started shorting hard in the 1.39s... I really am not sure where this notion (something I've only ever seen on this forum) of more than 50% being long/short so the market can't move up/down etc ...

EURUSD

I agree its in for a sizeable correction higher. I forecast 0.85% by year end. to move 30bps in a day would be nearly impossible tho, that would require the first rate hike to be in 2014... which is unlikely to say the least (based on historical ...

EURUSD

Desk likes short AUDNZD on a tactical play up here... heavy vs. Interest rate spread (red line) and also short term techs are overextended and diverging. Flow is seemingly NZD negative still, so we could see relative value short covering, hence ...

Cross Market Analysis

Summary G10: Strongest convictions lower EUR & NZD and higher USDCAD. CEEMEA: Lower USDZAR, EURHUF & USDTRY. ASIA: Quiet session overnight with Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia on holiday. G10 EURUSD Conviction – Short 3.5/5 We continue the grind ...

Cross Market Analysis

1.352 is quite a long way away unfortunately... I doubt a short squeeze is enough to go that far! also, bear in mind CoT data is awful. It doesn't really represent the market as it only caters to small CTAs in the US.

Cross Market Analysis

you don't actually think the fed cares about the SPX etc? you're not some ZHedger are you? And yes, I know the taylor rule is far from perfect, and I'm not suggesting we should be at 2% now... but I merely say, that whenever we hike from now, its ...

EURUSD

EURUSD DTCC report for the next week... huge 1.35s going off. 2.8bn across the week, mostly post wednesday, but maybe look for the market to edge higher (short covering as well) before wednseday and the data following.

Cross Market Analysis

China has been easing all year.

EURUSD

I agree that they are very vulnerable... thing is, fixed income managers have quite a different risk dynamic, so an exodus is rather unlikely is a few people stop buying... I think Emerging market debt would be at more risk in the event of rapid US ...

EURUSD

Haven't checked the most recent numbers, but IIRC the majority of fixed income inflows into EUR bonds is from China/Japan, and less so from US But For sure, if US starts raising rates, people will much rather recieve US rates at 3.5% vs. Bunds at ...

EURUSD