5 more dumb reasons to short E/U right now — ======== 6. The trend... looks down-ish. 7. That upside break of the down channel from yesterday? Head Fake! 8. Oil's turnin around. 9. Today's good US data will make the USD stronger. 10. Europe's ...

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"Generally the market (any market) acts to make the greatest number of people wrong. " - quote by Art Cashin, UBS floor manager, NYSE It's like a law of nature.

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probably right.

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Well, it's really helpful for me to try and imagine why so many people will do the same thing. Often, price will do the opposite. But it does take imagination.

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Top 5 dumb reasons to short E/U — Top 5 dumb reasons to go short E/U: 1. I think I see a double top there around 0842 EST! 2. The Italian auctions weren't that good. 3. I found a bunch of EURO negative stories on DJ this morning. 4. It can't ...

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1.3000? — ..uh, could it be because there are so many dumb reasons to go short and so many people acting on them?

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If I was THAT optimistic, I'd stay up way past my bedtime!

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You think it'll hit yesterday's high (3131)?

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Looks like they're load'in up for another run.

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That's about right.

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Yeah, I'm kinda surprised to see this in Asia. ...at least that far, that fast. Most of the victims are probably very surprised!

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This looks like a self-sustaining stop run in progress... take a s/t short pos, you die. Could go to 3175. Traders likely going short at such a high rate that it feeds on itself.

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Mr Market says it's Christmas time! — That was an awfully big bounce from the R2 area, so if you went long you didn't get creamed like you normally would. Mr. Market told me that the rat (the one that runs noobi stops) was in a really good ...

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Extended 4th, extended chance! — Just want to point out the falling impulse from 3110 and the extended 4th wave developing: great time to fade if your not a wave counter! Mr Market will appreciate your fade trade (and be happy to take your ...

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For random walk conditions, the probability that a TP will be hit before the SL is just: SL / (SL + TP) So in the example of your post (1 pip SL and 20 pip TP) the exact value would be 1/(1+20). I think I'm misunderstanding what you're saying with ...

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YOU ARE CORRECT SIR! My exception to your post was basically about math, and after a bit of work I see that 1/20th for the expectation value is essentially correct (exact value is 1/21). The 1/2^20... brain fart? Too early in the morning? Either ...

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I don't think I understand your assumptions because: to say "one's Risk/Reward is 1/20" (which is the Kath Lien/bankers best friend definition of risk/reward) implies that a position is opened with an SL 1 pip from the opening price and a TP at a ...

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Fighting? Well, if you can't think of anything else to do - what the heck! It's always good to keep busy.

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That is so true! My history of learning seems to be a story of think fast, then faster and faster... but I keep finding tricks to do it, so it's workin out pretty well.

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One nice thing about that strategy, if you can keep it up: small event risk. I find that hard to do sometimes.

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