Just a thought — Just curious as to whether Northern Rock would be likely to have extensive US holdings, in which case one might expect significant movement from USD to GBP as they raise cash....Thoughts/comments?

GBP/USD Trade Room

Well, at least for once he didn't say "It's a conundrum"

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

No, thank you. I've been doing this off and on since the late 90's, yet I never really thought about precisely which rates they use, I tend to ballpark things by target rates for the appropriate CB's. But I really don't know what the reality is, and ...

Global Interest Rates

That one is closed after the touch & refusal at the 100 day average (2.0091) at 2.0001 . I think there's lots of room to go lower, but I'm dmnd if I'll hold this one over the news. The next target is 2.0041 (+10), the sept 4 low.

GBP/USD Trade Room

is that the trendline from Aug17 ? I'm shorting against the break, with a target of the 100 day average....

GBP/USD Trade Room

Definitely, especially if the Fed lowers by half a percent. But there is no Cad rate announcement till October, so until then they'll have to handle it via overnight rates. I noticed on the BoC site the average overnight rate for August was already ...

Global Interest Rates

Fxj - I think you have to look at the actual composition of the pair in terms of standard lot sizes(100K of the base in terms of the second ccy - eg, 1 lot Eur/USD is based on the cost of 100K euros in dollars, 1 lot USD/JPY is based on 100K USD in ...

Global Interest Rates

Looks like real bubble behaviour. Might be a good idea to keep the powder dry until the actual rate announcement; if it's anything less then half a point there could be some good money to be made.....

Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals

Good trade, WTB, alas I slept through it. I admit I was also taken by surprise, expected pressure up on this from eur/usd, not via usd/jpy. Wonder if 160 is in the cards..

EUR/JPY Trading Room

tonj - first, and admission, I don't use fractal analysis for trding - but that said, one has to remember that fractal analysis represents an approximation, the same way that (say) a straight line drawn on a screen is not really a line, since the ...

What's a FRACTAL?

cesarnc - ever browse through fintag? Their position i great; Bernanke gets 3 choices: url

Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals

Good point; I think there's always a tendency to look at these probabilities in a frequentist sense, rather than an evidentiary (or Bayesian, aka wishful thinking ) sense. It would be interesting to correlate these numbers with the actual results ...

Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals

From a very short term perspective, I would guess that the real story for the next few days is whether Eur/Usd touches 1.40 Not from any fundamental perspective - I think the current risk re. mispricings could be at least as damaging to Europe as to ...

EUR/USD Trading Room

The implied probability of a half point fed cut is so dominant at the moment that I would imagine that holding firm would really tank the stock market; a quarter point OTOH would show some sympathy for the poor hedgies while at the same time ...

Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals

I won't yell at you; I thought it was a well argued POV. Thanks for putting the time into it.

Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals

Great point + a nice little article, and to be truthful it should have been my first guess. But alas it wasn't

Hidden Technical on Usd/Jpy

My own guess is that it's tied into the Chinese trading band of 1/2% on the USD, 3% on the others.

Hidden Technical on Usd/Jpy

As a chronic abuser of the term trendline I will say that on the whole, formally, I agree re. a true trendline needing 3 or more touch points to define a trend. However this doesn't discount the use of two-only touch point lines, though those need ...

Drawing a Trendline

Here it is, had it filed in the wrong place. url Those are actual publicly executed interventions; there are other methods available to dampen volatility. For background, the BoJ FAQ on intervention, which is worth reading, and pretty ...

Your Best Long Term Trade Is To Short USD/JPY