It doesnt matter, its correlating the currency with itself which is not rational, because they cause eaother, its not good to compare 2 things where the 2nd thing is part of the 1st thing. The only way to be sure, if someone would quantitatively ...

Predicting the EUR/USD by using Currency Correlations

Ok, but i was thinking about news trading on the spot, if you enter before the news, its just blind-trading, no edge or momentum there... As for the news EA problem, its simple, just use manual intervention, use the FF Calendar and either use that ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Ok i made a few improvements, so i collected all major currencies that are worth something, from wikipedia: url USD ($) EUR (€) JPY (¥) GBP (£) AUD ($) CHF (Fr) CAD ($) MXN ($) CNY (¥) NZD ($) SEK (kr) RUB (RUB) HKD ($) SGD ($) TRY (TRY)Now i ...

Predicting the EUR/USD by using Currency Correlations

If its pegged then it wont help us much, because no fluctuation = no information carrying capacity in the EUR/DKK about the future of the EUR/USD. So i will not include the EUR/DKK in the next version of the indicator... PS: Although its fixed rate, ...

Predicting the EUR/USD by using Currency Correlations

Good point, i will substract the Euro, from it and leave only USD containing pairs, so we shall compare any strong USD denominated pair which has any cause to the EUR.Also i should use a more smooth average, like more weigth on the euroland pairs ...

Predicting the EUR/USD by using Currency Correlations

Btw you guys were saying stuff about inter-currency correlations, and i was mentioning a few points about the Dollar Index and what impact it has on the EUR/USD & GBP/USD I opened a new thread to discuss the relations between the Dollar Index & the ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Yes, but on average, not always Ok then, i`m sorry i always compare other people to my trades, a bad habit I have around 30-50 trades/day, the fact that you only have 5 trade /week is different.Of course with few trades its harder to get 1 ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

expectancy measures the average gain, the only way it can be negative if the value is a "-" you get 60 cent in profit ,what i meant, but whatever a minor mistake

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Here was a typical bullish U pattern which ocured yesterday, right after the 13:30 GMT+0 USD Unemployment Rate , Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings m/m report. According to the FF calendar, the unemployment rate got less in the US ...

Trading the "U" shaped pattern

I`m sorry i`m busy now with my own EA, but if i finish i might join you, but just to give you 1 time, dont bother news trading, news on the spot can only be traded if you have a true ECN with no or type spread, probably one which substracts ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

80% is just too much, if you'd really have 80% winrate with 1:1 RR you could make 1 billion dollar in a week friend 80% WR with 1:1 has an expectancy of 0.6, meaning that for every dollar risked you get back on average 0.6 guaranteed on every ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I hope he can prove his statement, i would be very interested in a 80% system As for my pattern, i really think i should concentrate myself on the volatility, thats the only quantifiable variable that we need to concentrade ourselves on, the size ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Or but just for you to know that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.I myself and many others believe that even if an edge exists, its not a mostruous one, so by this logic a 80% winrate with 1:1 RR is impossible by definition. You ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Hmm, then your claims are really interesting, i pretty much believe 80% winrate with 1:1 RR is impossible.The best edge which i can even think to be feasable is a 5-10% over the coin flip , so a 55-60% winrate with a 1:1 at tops, due to the ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Winrate not accompanied by RR is meaningless.Its like buying a car or a house without the key. I can set you up a system in 5 min which will give you 80% winrate, by having an inbalanced RR, does that mean the expectancy will be positive ? Hell no, ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I didnt but i analysed many big stocks, i have a bit of stock database on lower timeframes, and what i can tell you its completely different than forex, it even less random, its very predictable, stocks are more susceptible to any news or bubble ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I dont know how true this is , but still interesting, although i think this one works just better for stocks. The FX market is made up of only a small percentage of speculators, since the instrument of the FX is the currency that all people have, ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Ok we have to make a difference between the actual meaning of the news and the interpretation of the news by the average people. Those bloggers or average guys who know nothing about macroeconomy or business economy, or just economy in general put ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I experienced that one too , that is why you have to make sure the volatility will be huge, so the news must have a nice impact, the best way it to put a tight pending order before the news when the spread is still normal, lets say if we ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?