My misunderstanding. You cannot even find statistically significant clues that the market is now in balance. Unit root tests fail with market data (fractionally integrated time series). 50% is good as long as SL << TP. Let's let the fat tails do the ...

Do you think statistics work in trading?

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Do you think statistics work in trading?

No need for MC, a histogram is enough. The 50% up/down is true. This is true for any TF. I even looked at range bar chart, same thing; except you get a M-shaped bi-modal distribution. Even taking the previous bar into account doesn't improve the ...

Do you think statistics work in trading?

Your friend is right about the 50-50% for market to go up X or down X. FX is symmetric. Isn't this already statistically significant? If the market was a random walk, could E/U and G/U be so well cointegreated while U/J is almost independent from ...

Do you think statistics work in trading?

I'm currently doing something similar. CodeMeister is correct, it would better fit a team. Hiring people from a software engineering firm will cost you something like $500-$1000 per day per developer --for peanuts you get monkeys!--. That's a ...

Creating your own charting platform

Hi Pipologist, As I don't want to spend hours writing a long post in pure waste of time, I'd like to ask you one single question instead: Are you ready to have an educated discussion about this trading idea even if mathematical proofs may show you ...

Probability, Pyramiding and Money Management

Writing that medical people are idiotic assassins is the most stupid, arrogant, unacceptable thing I could read so far. You clearly don't understand half of what you write. I hope you're in your teens. This may explain... Scentific approach of ...

Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading

Buy and Hold is the most used method in the world. Almost every grand-child has a saving account. This is investment not trading. There need no academic research of any kind to buy and hold. Just a quite big starting capital to have early in your ...

Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading

Quantifying is about mesuring or estimating things. It's not necessarily about forecasting. For instance I show here how I try to find the best pair to trade: url (work in progress) I forecast no price. I just estimate the likelihood of the ...

Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading

My attempt at trailing the stops. Recent Aussie H4, pSAR added for comparison. That's NOT a stop-and-reverse indicator! That's not a strategy by itself. image

Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading

You MR trade because "sideway movements dominate". This is a marginal probability ( url ). Should you know that the market is going to trend today, would you use your MR strategy? If you could use the recent PA + MTF analysis to improve the ...

Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading

I wish this was true. So often you'll be ticked out by a shadow not going more than a few pips beyond your SL just to see the price rocketing beyond your entry. Your SL was at a S/R level that perfectly reacted! Not only you get a loss but your only ...

Using a 5x5 pip stop loss strategy

This is interesting as well. Let's look at it differently. From a trend trader point of view. You're selling a overbought market. But statistically speaking you are doing it in a uptrend. You are counter-trend trading! Let me explain why I consider ...

Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading

You talk about MTF and fractals. I propose you an experience to show that the market is not exactly fractal but fractal-LIKE. Open a daily chart on any pair. E/U for example everybody watches this one. Add two MAs. Any kind SMA, EMA, LWMA, ...

Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading

Very happy to see you back posting! Something between multiple Bollinger Bands and/or a Keltner channel, I imagine? Your "mean level" or "zero line" drifts. This drift is someone else's trend. And what you trade is noise for him. Look at the picture ...

Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading

Oh BTW, MM is NOT the key url

Could this be an easy way to win in forex?

Crazy how quickly this kind of threads can grow... Gumrai spent some time explaining it cannot work. He's right. Here Ishtana, I propose you another way of looking at the issue: maths! I know people don't like maths because they give a definitive ...

Could this be an easy way to win in forex?

What is your GARCH Oscillator supposed to display? The two coefficients or some forecast? And what the NN will try to find?

Anyone used ARMA + GARCH models in forex trading?

Interestingly my filter finds that GBP/USD is up while at the same time it computes that GBP is the weakest and USD is the strongest. I'm wondering if it is a hint that the recent rally of GBP/USD is only a retracement to fade? image

Kalman filter and currencies strength

I think GARCH(0,0) doesn't exists... GARCH(1,1) is good enough for financial time series. You can just postulate this. Why don't you use ACF and PACF to guess the p,q? => url I'm not sure but p and q aren't supposed to change often, do they? If ...

Anyone used ARMA + GARCH models in forex trading?