It is even worse. This is a collection of correlated individual trades. It depends on the SL of each one. The exposure varies over the time. But overall the expectancy decreases in all the cases I could imagine. Set and Forget is the best I could ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

Please do so. But I want a real proof! That is mathematically proving me wrong here (and also here as MM is not an edge on its own). Being profitable is quite easy. Being optimally profitable is way more harder. Managing the trade is more important ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

I'm eagerly waiting for what Rag2RichesFX will post because all the proposed ideas I could find, in this thread and elsewhere, actually increase the risk and lower the expectancy of any system. When averaging down (stormtrader post#9) the R:R ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

Now I have a big problem to solve: how far shall I search the peaks? Usually 150 bars are enough. That's what I used to take the screenshots. But sometimes I need going way back in time. E.g. The recent high on EUR/AUD at 1.5000 is only matched by a ...

S/R Area Algoritm

Like you I was extremely confused when people were talking about THE trend; for the same reasons as yours. An up trend is defined by higher highs and highers lows. Ok. But what shall you consider a high? That's very confusing as there are numerous ...

Trend identification and trend change spotting

Now I have a set of interest points I need to merge them to find the relevant levels. Here I inspired myself by another image processing method: the segmentation by regions merging. I start by considering each point as a cluster on its own. I ...

S/R Area Algoritm

I then search fractals in the result and attribute a score to them depending on how many bars cannot be reached in the past. I limit the score to 10 to not have too heavy weights. I don't consider the number of bars on the right side because the ...

S/R Area Algoritm

I kept searching. I realized that the number of times the price hits a level isn't the most important. Say we have a tweezers top candlestick pattern for instance, the price hit the high twice within two bars. We almost consider it a single touch. ...

S/R Area Algoritm

The yellow line is the highest price reached this week. image

H4 Power

Have a look mid-July 2010 on weekly. But that's quite far away. I wonder if they are still valid... That's why I use TA in this case, or if the price is at historical highest. When no S/R are in sight, that's TA or fibo extension anyway . And I ...

H4 Power

Oui je suis bel et bien français. Pourquoi? (yes I am well and truly French, why?)

Statistical trading system based on current traders' positions

Hi 60min. In this post you look like wondering why E/A went down. Here is my explanation. image

H4 Power

Nope. Only the retailers. That's the whole idea. The OP wants to fade the retailers expecting the big boys will go his direction, under the assumption that the retailers are usually wrong. But this isn't that easy. Statistically 60% of the retail ...

Statistical trading system based on current traders' positions

I ask myself "What question shall I ask myself before opening this trade?"

Most important question to ask before trading

AFAIK probabilities are part of mathematics. You are correct that the mode of the PDF is indeed centered on zero (see post #12). But the question was about the probability of a move of X pips up or down. That is given X>0. I tried to ...

Do you think statistics work in trading?

What is the R:R?

Most important question to ask before trading

I wanted to code a robot for FX contests until I reviewed their trades and understood the strategy: Flip a coin bet all in. First or last. Have some friends competing with you share the $2500 if you win.

1 month contest strategy ideas

I just can't understand this. Why those 50%??? 30% is enough if the reward is 4-5 times the risk. Where is this "need" of being "right" coming from? It is a probability game. If a trader buys a bullish flag breakout and the price goes against his ...

Do you think statistics work in trading?

2) How do you know when the trend is start ? XOXOXOXOXOXOXOXOOOOOOOOOOO Is the bold O the last of the alternating pattern or the first of the continuous pattern? To me a trend is a continuation of a move. Something can only continue when it has ...

How do you know when the trend is over?

Fundamentals not written on the charts? Euro crisis is quite visible. Bernanke printing money is quite visible too. BNS' decidion that EUR/CHF cannot go below 1.2 you can't miss it on the chart. Aussie and its interest rate curves are quite in sync ...

Do you think statistics work in trading?