The way to ask the question, the answer is "not a single one". Because you want to prove some method can predict a random event which per definition is impossible. Can you profit from a random walk? yes. If the random walk is normally distributed, ...

Prediction of random charts w/poll

Let's see how the sampling influences the real life data. I took the data from E/U versus U/CHF over 2012. The reason for this choice is the SNB peg on EUR/CHF. When a central bank maintains EUR/CHF at almost exactly 1.2000, E/U and U/CHF can only ...

Pairs correlation and Money Management

Sampling frequency (the timeframe) is of importance. If you thought about the blue and the red curves, you certainly have noticed that if you sample at a low frequency you see two same trends with noise. You get a perfect positive correlation, +1. ...

Pairs correlation and Money Management

Hi Ronald. There is no strategy discussed in this thread. I'm only trying to distribute the risk over a set of pairs I would like to trade. Let me quote bull.bear who perfectly summarized it: "It is regarding portfolio management, by measuring and ...

Pairs correlation and Money Management

@OP are you trying to inspire yourself or trying to steal the hard work of somebody else? If you search some inspiration maybe you can just kindly ask the guy, at least for the rough idea about his method.

Creating a strategy from a trader's trading history

url Work in progress

Nihilist trading

This means that you track the footprint the smart money left behind its trading. The assumption is that they are too big to efficiently hide. IMO understanding this is already a statistical evaluation of the PA. Even if you didn't write it in maths ...

Do you think statistics work in trading?

I would re-formulate the question: Is it easier to reverse engineer a strategy from the trader's history or to find a equivalent startegy? Or simply: Is the cost of reversing lower than the cost of researching your own?

Creating a strategy from a trader's trading history

I hope you got it was a joke Kanzler. What does perpendicular mean on a price chart? image

Post your stupid chart

The formula gives a multiplicative factor to apply onto your MM given the values ab,ac and bc. Of course these values have to be updated as they indeed change over time. I'm talking of correlation but it is a abuse of language. It is more about ...

Pairs correlation and Money Management

What screen resolution does he recommend?

Post your stupid chart

E/J outlook image

Post your stupid chart

There are math models of herd behavior. Here a simplistic one with birds: url I lost the references but there was also a model made on how a crowd in a mall would reach the exits if a fire started. Also a research team investigated how people ...

Do you think statistics work in trading?

I think I found a solution for N pairs. It's more an approximation. Here is the explanation and formula for N=3. Say you want to trade 3 pairs with one system. Let's say A, B and C. You compute the correlations. There are 3 correlations: A with B, A ...

Pairs correlation and Money Management

The win/loss ratio is meaningless by itself you need to factor the R:R. See the awful "Daytrading/scalping with high leverage - my proven strategy" I bothered backtesting the marginal probability of winning (aka win/loss ratio). To do so I generated ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

For the forward grid, I show in Expectancy Management that it is very probably lesser than opening one single trade "set and forget". The bigger profit only comes from the bigger risk but the expectancy decreases (aka over-leverage). @JackintheBox: ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

I've got a problem with the backtests. How to backtest a strategy based on support/resistance or on trend line breakout? To find the S/R I have an algo that is barely satisfying ( url ). My japanese candlesticks patterns recognizing algo is very ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

Don't throw the baby with the bath water. Gridding every 10 pips is clearly wrong because the positions are all almost at the same price and the BE point follows you too tight. But buying the dips of an up trend perfectly works. What I don't know is ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

If feel really ashame posting this request but... may you please post a naked chart? There are lines and arrows all over the place and I'm totally unable to see where and when the entries have been open/closed. I'd like to see the price ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

This is one possibility. Not necessarily the best btw. You're mix and matching risk managment and money management. The effectiveness of a position management must be independent of the MM. Only pips of reward per pips of risk matter. MM applies ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold