Because you impose the R:R=1:1 you can calculate the likelyhood of the probability of your strategy given N trades. N is as big as you need the confidence interval to be tight. url

Prediction of random charts w/poll

I think he was more trying to disprove the guru/mentor.

Prediction of random charts w/poll

You're not the only one to believe so url But I think his title is wrong. If TA can profit from a puppy chart it makes it quite powerful IMO.

Prediction of random charts w/poll

What I mean by random:

Prediction of random charts w/poll

Yourself sir. First sentence of the first post "i've tested random charts with chandlesticks."

Prediction of random charts w/poll

You don't have a single trade a risk, all of them are! Retracements can be deep. All of the positions were at risk before trailing the SL. You will accumulate several losers in the way you wouldn't have had with the first position only. More ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

The way to ask the question, the answer is "not a single one". Because you want to prove some method can predict a random event which per definition is impossible. Can you profit from a random walk? yes. If the random walk is normally distributed, ...

Prediction of random charts w/poll

Let's see how the sampling influences the real life data. I took the data from E/U versus U/CHF over 2012. The reason for this choice is the SNB peg on EUR/CHF. When a central bank maintains EUR/CHF at almost exactly 1.2000, E/U and U/CHF can only ...

Pairs correlation and Money Management

Sampling frequency (the timeframe) is of importance. If you thought about the blue and the red curves, you certainly have noticed that if you sample at a low frequency you see two same trends with noise. You get a perfect positive correlation, +1. ...

Pairs correlation and Money Management

Hi Ronald. There is no strategy discussed in this thread. I'm only trying to distribute the risk over a set of pairs I would like to trade. Let me quote bull.bear who perfectly summarized it: "It is regarding portfolio management, by measuring and ...

Pairs correlation and Money Management

@OP are you trying to inspire yourself or trying to steal the hard work of somebody else? If you search some inspiration maybe you can just kindly ask the guy, at least for the rough idea about his method.

Creating a strategy from a trader's trading history

url Work in progress

Nihilist trading

This means that you track the footprint the smart money left behind its trading. The assumption is that they are too big to efficiently hide. IMO understanding this is already a statistical evaluation of the PA. Even if you didn't write it in maths ...

Do you think statistics work in trading?

I would re-formulate the question: Is it easier to reverse engineer a strategy from the trader's history or to find a equivalent startegy? Or simply: Is the cost of reversing lower than the cost of researching your own?

Creating a strategy from a trader's trading history

I hope you got it was a joke Kanzler. What does perpendicular mean on a price chart? image

Post your stupid chart

The formula gives a multiplicative factor to apply onto your MM given the values ab,ac and bc. Of course these values have to be updated as they indeed change over time. I'm talking of correlation but it is a abuse of language. It is more about ...

Pairs correlation and Money Management

What screen resolution does he recommend?

Post your stupid chart

E/J outlook image

Post your stupid chart

There are math models of herd behavior. Here a simplistic one with birds: url I lost the references but there was also a model made on how a crowd in a mall would reach the exits if a fire started. Also a research team investigated how people ...

Do you think statistics work in trading?

I think I found a solution for N pairs. It's more an approximation. Here is the explanation and formula for N=3. Say you want to trade 3 pairs with one system. Let's say A, B and C. You compute the correlations. There are 3 correlations: A with B, A ...

Pairs correlation and Money Management