I will always be amazed to see how clueless about mathematics the "traders" are. Especially thoses who are also clueless about trading...

Does the martingale system really work?

If it was just to bring eggs a single big basket to put them all would suffice. But you also want the eggs not broken. The ultimate objective is not to make money but to make money using as few risk as possible. Making money is not the goal, it's ...

Why Trade Multiple Pairs?

If you use a system with RR=10 you need a win rate greater than 9.1% If you use a system with RR=5 you need a win rate greater than 17% If you use a system with RR=2 you need a win rate greater than 33% If you use a system with RR=1 you need a win ...

Does the martingale system really work?

I noticed. He was +426% at the highest ;-) But a DD doesn't prove his method wrong. His newest thread, however, brings discredit...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

It appears that a currency can be strong either because it is receiving a lot from some other currencies or because it is receiving from all the others. Usually the 2 conditions match. Which is the strongest? USD with the biggest score or EUR ...

Kalman filter and currencies strength

If you could have such a system (75% winrate with RR=2), your equity curve would be the first one with fixed lot size or the second one with 1% per trade. Who would risk a 50% DD on a single loser with this thing I cannot really distinguish from ...

Rags to Riches in 10 or 20 Trades - Simplicity at its finest

Another negative aspect on pyramiding is that the BE point follows you. A small retracement pushes you down by a few pips multiplied by a huge lot size. There is one case where you are correct. I couldn't find a system matching the requirements: a ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

Did you read my previous post? If I can prove this is the best way to pyramid and you consider it stupid (which it is), you shall consider even more stupid to trade any other pyramid (because worse). I just fail at proving it is the best. That's why ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

Absolutely! (Except it's not about profit factor but expectancy) That's exactly why I'd like to show this is the best possible pyramid! Any pyramid is worse than the best one. If the best pyramid is inefficient, any pyramid is inefficient. ;-)

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

Yonnie is going to be happy. After checking my maths I realized that I proved one solution of pyramiding to be wrong but not in the general case. I need to prove this pyramid is the best possible. I don't know how to. The pyramid I tested guarantees ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

I would by far prefer proving a single person right, especially the OP. It's actually much more difficult to prove a strategy correct. But if maths say you are wrong, you are just wrong. Like it or not, accept it or not. If people prefer trading ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

This package is called mathematical expectation or expectency for short ;-) E = (1+R:R) x win/loss - 1 when R:R and win/loss are fixed.

Prediction of random charts w/poll

I forgot to add that the edge may come from the R:R instead of the win/loss.

Prediction of random charts w/poll

I think I found a way to prove that adding a position to a winning trade lowers the expectancy of a strategy in the general case. A fortiori, adding more than one makes things worse. If I've time this week-end I'll post the demonstration in ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

Because you impose the R:R=1:1 you can calculate the likelyhood of the probability of your strategy given N trades. N is as big as you need the confidence interval to be tight. url

Prediction of random charts w/poll

I think he was more trying to disprove the guru/mentor.

Prediction of random charts w/poll

You're not the only one to believe so url But I think his title is wrong. If TA can profit from a puppy chart it makes it quite powerful IMO.

Prediction of random charts w/poll

What I mean by random:

Prediction of random charts w/poll

Yourself sir. First sentence of the first post "i've tested random charts with chandlesticks."

Prediction of random charts w/poll

You don't have a single trade a risk, all of them are! Retracements can be deep. All of the positions were at risk before trailing the SL. You will accumulate several losers in the way you wouldn't have had with the first position only. More ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold