How do you know it is profitable? Great a backtest in a period of well behaving trends for G/U! What about crapy-choppy ranges? The profit is totally irrelevant. Only the risk matters. Two paragraphs above it was already profitable..... Why 34 and ...

Simple EMA mechanical system!

Double

Could you share with me the worst trading strategy you know?

Oh la la no no no!!!! Wait up! There is a major flaw here! The probability I'm taking about is the probability of the event "the price reaches the TP of the first entry (point B) before the SL of the first entry (point 2)". If it is true that the ...

Does the martingale system really work?

Thanks a lot. The experiment is only interesting if the exit criteria of both the positions is the same. Otherwise, if the second entry has its own exit criteria, the results will degrade. That's because the expectancies sum up. Regarding your ...

Does the martingale system really work?

Dear Hanover, In your previous post you say that your EA sometimes opens multiple entries. As you may know I try to show (here) that any fiddling with the open position doesn't improve the expectancy of any winning system. So far I could show that ...

Does the martingale system really work?

I will always be amazed to see how clueless about mathematics the "traders" are. Especially thoses who are also clueless about trading...

Does the martingale system really work?

If it was just to bring eggs a single big basket to put them all would suffice. But you also want the eggs not broken. The ultimate objective is not to make money but to make money using as few risk as possible. Making money is not the goal, it's ...

Why Trade Multiple Pairs?

If you use a system with RR=10 you need a win rate greater than 9.1% If you use a system with RR=5 you need a win rate greater than 17% If you use a system with RR=2 you need a win rate greater than 33% If you use a system with RR=1 you need a win ...

Does the martingale system really work?

I noticed. He was +426% at the highest ;-) But a DD doesn't prove his method wrong. His newest thread, however, brings discredit...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

It appears that a currency can be strong either because it is receiving a lot from some other currencies or because it is receiving from all the others. Usually the 2 conditions match. Which is the strongest? USD with the biggest score or EUR ...

Kalman filter and currencies strength

If you could have such a system (75% winrate with RR=2), your equity curve would be the first one with fixed lot size or the second one with 1% per trade. Who would risk a 50% DD on a single loser with this thing I cannot really distinguish from ...

Rags to Riches in 10 or 20 Trades - Simplicity at its finest

Another negative aspect on pyramiding is that the BE point follows you. A small retracement pushes you down by a few pips multiplied by a huge lot size. There is one case where you are correct. I couldn't find a system matching the requirements: a ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

Did you read my previous post? If I can prove this is the best way to pyramid and you consider it stupid (which it is), you shall consider even more stupid to trade any other pyramid (because worse). I just fail at proving it is the best. That's why ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

Absolutely! (Except it's not about profit factor but expectancy) That's exactly why I'd like to show this is the best possible pyramid! Any pyramid is worse than the best one. If the best pyramid is inefficient, any pyramid is inefficient. ;-)

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

Yonnie is going to be happy. After checking my maths I realized that I proved one solution of pyramiding to be wrong but not in the general case. I need to prove this pyramid is the best possible. I don't know how to. The pyramid I tested guarantees ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

I would by far prefer proving a single person right, especially the OP. It's actually much more difficult to prove a strategy correct. But if maths say you are wrong, you are just wrong. Like it or not, accept it or not. If people prefer trading ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold

This package is called mathematical expectation or expectency for short ;-) E = (1+R:R) x win/loss - 1 when R:R and win/loss are fixed.

Prediction of random charts w/poll

I forgot to add that the edge may come from the R:R instead of the win/loss.

Prediction of random charts w/poll

I think I found a way to prove that adding a position to a winning trade lowers the expectancy of a strategy in the general case. A fortiori, adding more than one makes things worse. If I've time this week-end I'll post the demonstration in ...

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold