LOL, do you really believe that this is serious? I do not "Believe". Either the mathematics show something is correct or disprove it or I'm unable to solve the equation. Believing is for Martingale-fueled-Holy-Grail seekers. Nothing is simpler: ...

Expectancy Management

What is Expected Growth? ""You think you should try improving EV while the phenomena above can only be explained with EG"" Statistics say retail traders have a R:R of or below 1. Sometimes as low a 0.5. This is enough to explain the phenomena IMO

Expectancy Management

No he's right. FX is symetrically, but not Normally, distributed (not the case for stocks which aren't symmetric). All the game is to "cut the losses short, let the profits run" or in my language, it is preferable to aim at a big R:R rather than a ...

Expectancy Management

NOooooo! You are exactly doing the mistake. This thread is about expectancy. That is optimizing your edge. This happens BEFORE any money management. Pips won for pips lost. This is because money management is not the edge. Kelly is only for money ...

Expectancy Management

Hello. If you read Expectancy Management I explain, with schemas and equations, why this is not a good idea at all for a system to take partial profit. Especially for systems with a big R:R like trend followers. Below is an example of such a short ...

SAR Method on 4hr Charts

Thanks for sharing this interesting method. I understand from the video that when the price escapes the 4 lines againsts the trade, it triggers the trailing of the stop when it enters back inbetween the 4 lines. But you don't cover the case where ...

SAR Method on 4hr Charts

How does wasting days backtesting the obvious can be any useful? Maths say he is wrong. Therefore he is wrong. Full stop. Shall he backtest until a cherry picked period of time will fit his ego? He already did that (post#2). It's not a matter of ...

Simple EMA mechanical system!

What is the point backtesting a strategy which is mathematically wrong? 1+1=2. Believe it or not. Like it or not. Accept it or not. 1+1=2, for you, for me, for everybody. It has always been, it will always be.

Simple EMA mechanical system!

I'm sure nobody thought about this before! 180 pips at risk for up to... 20 pips profit. I hope you will quickly add a "smart martingale" on top of this HG.

Basic Hedge System

Better in English for everybody to understand. Something very interresting you can do is the following: Open your G/U M15 chart and draw a big circle around the entries you find. Use a color code. 4 colors: winning short, winning long, losing ...

Simple EMA mechanical system!

Don't bother for now with the MM. That's the icing on the cake. You have no cake yet. Of course a stupid MM will burn your account in no time, but for now use fixed lot size. 1 micro lot. You don't care making money for now. What you need is finding ...

Simple EMA mechanical system!

Ca doit être ça. Two half a lot with 22.9 pips SL and 45.8 pips TP.... I got lost!

Simple EMA mechanical system!

Oops example values are so wierd that I didn't even check it was 1:1

Simple EMA mechanical system!

You are scaling out half of the position when it is in the red. I show in Expectancy Management this is worse -in the long term- than letting the original trade run. The original trade is a breakeven-er therefore, with no need for BT, this variant ...

Simple EMA mechanical system!

"why don't you forget about the win rate? just see the pips gained." Because pips gains are not a valid metrics. The only two things you have to focus on are the R:R (R times your SL) and the winrate (p, probability of winning). Altogether. One ...

Simple EMA mechanical system!

My points were made to made you think. 1. 2. "I don't read my backtest file, do you? There are times that I lose 5 trades in a row because the ranging market. But at last, I'm still being profitable" Sorry I didn't understand that you actually meant ...

Simple EMA mechanical system!

People still can't fly. Nope. Easy to prove. No. Proved here in one of my posts.

Could you share with me the worst trading strategy you know?

CindyXXXX offered you his ultimate holy grail. Flip a coin and LONG when HEAD / SHORT when TAIL. Or the opposite I need reading his post once more SL=10, TP=10. Even without spread.

Could you share with me the worst trading strategy you know?

It must be very challenging to prove a system has really no edge. Certainly as hard as proving a system works. For "flip a coin 1:1" it's obvious but in the general case... A lot of systems in FF clearly have a negative expectancy but the reverse ...

Could you share with me the worst trading strategy you know?

He just told you. Stop and reverse, always in the market.

Could you share with me the worst trading strategy you know?