His MM isn't %X per trade but %X of the starting capital per trade. He is increasing the risk after a loser trade (in % of the account).

Expectancy Management

I completely agree with your conclusion about the risk of ruin. Do you know the formula used to generate these tables? It would be interresting to compute the value of each cell according to its corresponding Kelly bet size. Perhaps this validates ...

Expectancy Management

Either you can't trade and rely on luck or you can and you should perform much better. In both cases, not interesting.

3060EA and back test help wanted

You can also start with a lot size of 0 and keep doubling Yes but a martingale requires infinite money so withdrawing only throws gas onto the fire. When the risk free capital is gone the net balance is the starting capital. Sound like the ...

3060EA and back test help wanted

You are more than welcome Patrick to bring this very interesting contribution

Expectancy Management

Because I do my homework even, and especially, when I'm told it is useless... I ran two Monte-Carlo simulations of two Bernoulli trials. In these two games either you lose 1 or you win R. Probability of winning is P. The first one simulates a system ...

Expectancy Management

I'm also interested in this kind of indicator (estimator). More precisely in the algorithm used as I'm not using MT4. I don't care the lag, the lesser the better of course, but even a dozen of bars are OK. BTW can you tell me how your naked eyes can ...

Good Chop Indicator

Why a system with 40% winrate and RR=2 can't work?

Rags to Riches in 10 or 20 Trades - Simplicity at its finest

With R=2, 67% win rate is the minimum to bet 50% of your money. 50% winrate and RR=2, that's 25% no more.

Rags to Riches in 10 or 20 Trades - Simplicity at its finest

Kelly is about Money Management. With the high risk of repeating myself this is OFF-TOPIC. In pseudo-maths, "1+4%" is not a correct notation. If you want to educate people give the full kelly equation, not the simplified version for binary outcome ...

Expectancy Management

OK. I understand you know nothing to maths therefore you reject them.... What is your definition of an edge? To predict the market? I understand why you consider all the methods don't work then... It is fortunately wrong. No. You are wrong. This ...

Expectancy Management

(thinking out loud) If someone filters his setups why the filters aren't already part of the system's rules?

Expectancy Management

All of this is about money management: off-topic. variable position sizes suggests that you know in advance that one trade has better probability than another Correct, except you estimate that one trade has better probability than another. You can ...

Expectancy Management

Ltc.Data made me think.... It was half past eleven yesterday night. Tired... I said "it is preferable to aim at a big R:R rather than a big win rate" and he opposed that "Providing that the edge remains constant, the opposite is true." Of course he ...

Expectancy Management

LOL, do you really believe that this is serious? I do not "Believe". Either the mathematics show something is correct or disprove it or I'm unable to solve the equation. Believing is for Martingale-fueled-Holy-Grail seekers. Nothing is simpler: ...

Expectancy Management

What is Expected Growth? ""You think you should try improving EV while the phenomena above can only be explained with EG"" Statistics say retail traders have a R:R of or below 1. Sometimes as low a 0.5. This is enough to explain the phenomena IMO

Expectancy Management

No he's right. FX is symetrically, but not Normally, distributed (not the case for stocks which aren't symmetric). All the game is to "cut the losses short, let the profits run" or in my language, it is preferable to aim at a big R:R rather than a ...

Expectancy Management

NOooooo! You are exactly doing the mistake. This thread is about expectancy. That is optimizing your edge. This happens BEFORE any money management. Pips won for pips lost. This is because money management is not the edge. Kelly is only for money ...

Expectancy Management

Hello. If you read Expectancy Management I explain, with schemas and equations, why this is not a good idea at all for a system to take partial profit. Especially for systems with a big R:R like trend followers. Below is an example of such a short ...

SAR Method on 4hr Charts

Thanks for sharing this interesting method. I understand from the video that when the price escapes the 4 lines againsts the trade, it triggers the trailing of the stop when it enters back inbetween the 4 lines. But you don't cover the case where ...

SAR Method on 4hr Charts