Oil (OANDA:WTICOUSD), 5 cent Renko chart Cheers, k image

Charting with Median Lines

Chart dump. Always simplifying. image

The Great Pumpkin

Yes, I'd also expect trend trading with such mechanical entry to have at best ~50% win ratio. What counts is letting winners run and ideally adding to them. Cheers, k

The Skill Check

@hanover: Price is always more likely to proceed in the direction where it is already going, the reason is as you mention, the fat-tailed distribution of returns. A good strategy, with these three elements (cut losses, let profits run, buy when ...

95% of the time Price will close above or below the open price

Not cutting losses and particularly adding to losing trades, bring you deeply into the “loss hemisphere” of trade management. These two practices are some of key reasons of loss of retail traders as a whole. They should be avoided like the plague. ...

95% of the time Price will close above or below the open price

Just so that you know, you appear to have a completely false image of yourself. (May God help those who receive your “help”.) Cheers, k

95% of the time Price will close above or below the open price

As far as I can tell, this is exactly what you do in this thread. k

95% of the time Price will close above or below the open price

The statement is so clearly true that it seems stupid. After a lot of thinking I personally found it to be quite profound, as it eliminates unnecessary considerations while trading. It reduces the number of things to focus on imho, which is quite ...

95% of the time Price will close above or below the open price

Likely a better set of rules would be to enter in the (Close-Open) direction in the (25% of) cases when (H+L+C)/3 is not reached. SL could simply be at (H+L+O)/3. Stop and reverse when the entry condition is satisfied in the opposite direction. ...

The Skill Check

That is to be expected as the pivot calculation gives a large (1/3) weight to the Close value. If it gave this weight to the Open instead of the Close, I would expect a significantly lower hit rate percentage... k

The Skill Check

A virtually identical market cycle structure seems to crystallize from the teachings of Sukyu Honma, an 18th century Japanese rice trader. Described in detail in the “The secret code of Japanese candlesticks” by Felipe Tudela. k

The Great Pumpkin

Hi, By “pullback” I mean a movement opposite to the direction of the main trend. When a pullback fails, the trend continues. So, below your red line you have a few lower timeframe bullish attempts that do not go very far, and if you used a trendline ...

Why members share strategies?

They’re based off of bars on tradingview, which is what I look at. You’re right that they are essentially a smoother of price. I have just found them to be precise enough for my purposes when entering moves (trends) that are orders of magnitude ...

Why members share strategies?

And I still suspect I overcomplicate things. Ed Seykota famously puts the chart to the other side of the room and “if it looks like it goes up”, he buys, and if “it looks like it goes down”, he sells. I guess I haven’t reached that Yoda level just ...

Why members share strategies?

I use a Renko chart on oil for trading decisions. The non-time based charts reflect the nature of price (that it can only go up or down) better. There’s, broadly speaking, a “chart pattern” I exploit, but I can’t be bothered with wicks, engulfing ...

Why members share strategies?

Not necessary: While my proposal might even work, I think it would be easy to construct a system that would be better. Consider a system that would completely ignore the pivot target, but would exit based on, say, MA cross. If this signal would ...

The Skill Check

The only way out of this problem imho is to define a different, dynamic level above which one just buys and below it just sells. This could be for example, the daily vwap. Then to aim at the pivot (if it happens to be on the correct side of the ...

The Skill Check

I understand the rules as laid out above. It is just in the nature of price to move away from any given level, which is why one should buy above and sell below any particular line. Your rules are going opposite to this. I suspect you’re not going to ...

The Skill Check