I'm not sure what election you may be thinking of, but the federal election in Canada is tentatively scheduled for October 19th, 2015. I agree that a U.S. rate hike was only so much (unconvincing) talk. Should a rate hike actually take place, having ...

Davit's Confluence Trading

With an election in October, I am confident there will be nothing but hawkish statements from Poloz, Oliver (Minister of Finance), and Harper (Prime Minister). Carney was loyal to Goldman Sachs and Flaherty was loyal to the Conservative Party, but ...

Davit's Confluence Trading

For the pairs with volatile movement I (now) use a reduced order size and trust my judgment until either my target is hit or I've been proven wrong, though I primarily for pairs which yield a positive rate swap (though I don't trade in "exotics" ...

Davit's Confluence Trading

I have to watch myself buying CAD because I have a bias towards always wanting it to go up. Economically I don't buy into "race to the bottom so we can sell to the lowest bidder" mentality, and personally, I don't want a 20-25% "currency surcharge" ...

Davit's Confluence Trading

I shifted into CAD about this same time. I'm not dong much trading, more a matter of shifting my money around. Then today Goldman Sachs (not that I generally give two shakes about their opinion) posted this: url For me it's mostly about oil, ...

Davit's Confluence Trading

I'm on the wrong computer for posting charts, but gold is at the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern (best shown on an eight-hour chart), a break below the shoulder at $1,186, preferably retesting it from below for confirmation, would target ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Two central bank surprises in one day is two too many. I wonder if the FED will also pull a Swiss next week. The Euro is currently getting settled after re-re-retracing it's initial ECB QE pre-release move, but the BOC rate sent the Loonie in one ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

[Update] Well, I guess instead you can look to the 76.4% retracements (not sure how that 78.2% got in my charts but I fixed it) for pullbacks to continue Loonie weakness rather than any kind of significant reversal like I thought, or at least until ...

Davit's Confluence Trading

A coincidence that the first post I read here in a long time is about the Swiss Franc which, in addition to Russia finally dropping the petrodollar, was what I was primarily contemplating this morning. I agree with Richard Perry from Hantec Markets ...

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

When this happens, look at the LAST price which should match either the BID or ASK depending on whether the last system trade was a buy or sell.

Interactive Brokers - experiences and opinions

Does anyone actively maintain a stock portfolio or is everyone here strictly FOREX traders? In case any of you are interested, Alibaba's (BABA) IPO is September 19th. Alibaba is the world's largest online retailer, based out of China and currently ...

Davit's Confluence Trading

Is anyone doing manual profit/loss calculation comparisons of their trades? Except for spot checks, I'd stopped until recently because TWS was accurate for several straight years. Today my spot check revealed the unrealized profit of my AUD/NZD ...

Interactive Brokers - experiences and opinions

I took a pretty big hit when I started trading gold futures. I was up $500 within a few minutes, I went to the washroom and came back with my position down $1,500. Not long thereafter I was down $6,000. I ended up losing about $16,000 in all which I ...

Interactive Brokers - experiences and opinions

Cable (bizarrely) reversed nearly a full 100 pip move down when the latest poll favouring Scottish independence was released. I could find no news supporting the move up (and it would have to be fantastic news) so I believe that is a selling ...

Davit's Confluence Trading

USD Index has nearly hit the 78.6% Fibonacci of the 2013 swing down and the 27.2% extension of the Oct-Jan swing up. RSI is near the level of previous reversal. With no new fundamental factors driving USD strength unless continued stock market ...

Davit's Confluence Trading

The NZD/USD hit my target from the prior post (and a bit more) then reversed (it was a USD steamroller across the board the last few days), but I held my AUD/NZD short (still holding) and I got back all my previous losses and then some. New trade ...

Davit's Confluence Trading

I know many farmers speculate on their crops/livestock. I'm sorry to hear you've taken such a heavy loss. One of the reasons I've stayed away from trading anything that grows is the weather variable. Is corn down now is do you trade it year round?

Interactive Brokers - experiences and opinions