I`m trying to find a mean which i can use like a moving average to generate BUY/SELL signals if the price crosses above or below it. This is the only way i found to make sure the filter is accurate, as you can measure directly it's results on the ...

Statistical mean of the market [quant corner]

Higher timeframes are derived from lower ones, but its all a question of filtering.Which TF filters out the most noise, while generating the least lagg. The H4 seems to be a good balance for this.

Preferred Timeframe for Trading

Ok i`ve checked if the range bars were good enough, but looks like it is not: The 10 pip constant range bar failed horribly on the long run, so i used 46 pip bars, because 46 pip is the average bar size on H4 timeframe to be similar. So the best 46 ...

Statistical mean of the market [quant corner]

Look here: url 186.000 Holy Grails found by Google, yet 89% of traders still lose money. How is that possible ? Traders are so dumb, really.

95% Lose in FX is a Myth: % Profitability in the US last year

Yes indeed, seeing a couple of ads on the internet where they hype the success rate, is really a good lure. As in if you start a business you are somewhat more prepared or atleast have basic knowledge about that field of industry. Most traders are ...

95% Lose in FX is a Myth: % Profitability in the US last year

Yes that is really a teller about trading. I`ve checked some stats, and looks like there are on average about 90.000-100.000 bankruptcies / month in the US. And about ~500.000 new businesses each month, so that is only a 19-20% failure rate for the ...

95% Lose in FX is a Myth: % Profitability in the US last year

What I am trying to say that this research is pointless, you might or might not find something useful, but i dont think you can separate the pattern from the noise with such a brute force. This is why i dont research in this field because i dont ...

Secret footprint in the markets

Hopefully not, the poll is anonymous they have absolute nothing to gain if they lie and nothing to lose if they speak the truth. Hopefully after the poll is atleast 2-3 weeks old we shall see if the myth is true. I`m curious about it. So please dont ...

POLL: Are you profitable? Is the 95% losers myth true?

I disagree, it's not just about the current need for computing power but the constant need for it. Because you also have to rethink the course of the research after analysing every result. So you need to rent it out like for 6 months or so. How much ...

Secret footprint in the markets

That is not what I am saying, I say that how do you know that fractals of 5 size are the holy grail? You can call it fractal or whatever i dont care, the point is that: You have no scientific proof behind that number just bunch of 70's technical ...

Secret footprint in the markets

Yes but who said that 5 is the magical number, you can say it's 3, or 7 or any odd number except 1. It is just an unverified claim. I`m sure mr. Bill Williams didn't tested quantitatively the cluster sizes and came up with the conclusion of the "5" ...

Secret footprint in the markets

There could be patterns hidden, but i agree that CLOSE[I]>CLOSE[I+1] type of coding is pretty simplistic and naive. If there is any pattern to be found, then obviously it has to be a very complicated pattern so that nobody with average knowledge or ...

Secret footprint in the markets

Yes it may seem random, but there can be still a subtle pattern under the noise, which can be detected only by math tools and not by the naked eye. Yes but why 5 and not 8, why 7 and not 3, how do you select the most optimal cluster size if you dont ...

Secret footprint in the markets

Ok here is the filter 2.7 version: image This is the balance curve difference between the 2 versions And this is the nominal difference: 1.65 RFE (+0.2) 397 TRADES (+5) 22.6% WINRATE (+0.3) 1.49 PROFIT FACTOR (+0.02) Seems a little bit improved, ...

Statistical mean of the market [quant corner]

I could just remove the 2 values altogether because they are representing the same CLOSE price as if the market didnt moved at all. But why does the binary files help, how do I know that the 8 size cluster is the optimal one, if we are talking about ...

Secret footprint in the markets

Yes i did that there are 2 versions of the file a binary and an "XO" how did you miss it?

Secret footprint in the markets

Thanks but I`m not proving anything here, the results speak for themselves.I`m just looking at the results.

Preferred Timeframe for Trading

A data mining was the first thing that I did when I started analyzing the markets quantitatively. I`m just not the buy & pray type of trader I wan to know exactly the probabilities. Unfortunately I did not found any good edges, the best that i`ve ...

Secret footprint in the markets

Ok I`m bored as my PC is optimizing so lets do a little risk management calculation: How much Risk % / trade should I take if my current winrate is 22.3% and have a risk of account wipe of less than 0.00001%? Well the equation is simple: We got a ...

Statistical mean of the market [quant corner]

I also made this method more visual, by coding each option into a color in excel, so: black background = "X" --> previous bar close >current bar close blue background = "O" --> previous bar close <current bar close yellow background = "-" --> ...

Secret footprint in the markets