The saying, "sell in May and go away" seems to hold true. The historical seasonal pattern for the Dow shows that June is a down month on average. image

Dow Jones

Alpha decays over time. If anything, if it used to work in the distant past you should not expect it to work in the future. With ML and ARIMA models picking up on patterns far better than any human, finding success using price alone is not a ...

Questions for real pros: How to trade with reference points only?

I've not read Chan's book, but on the same subject I highly recommend Marcos Lopez de Predo's book Advances in Financial Machine Learning. It was fantastic, one of the best books I've read in a long time.

The Finance Book Club

I suppose you can just ask here for the time being. If you rather reach out privately you can get in touch with me at @ForexStats.

EURUSD

Thanks! It's too bad they don't break it down between puts and calls. If they did, I might be able to calculate dealer hedging requirements.

EURUSD

I've been at this a long time and helped a lot of new traders along the way. Feel free to DM me with any questions you have.

EURUSD

Interesting, where are you getting this data?

EURUSD

August 5th, 2011

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Fitch announced they may cut the U.S. credit rating due to the debt standoff in congress. Here's what happened to GBP/USD after S&P cut the U.S.'s credit rating in 2011: image As you can see, the reaction was very ambiguous. Here's a table of ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Fitch announced they may cut the U.S. credit rating due to the debt standoff in congress. When S&P cut the U.S.'s credit rating in 2011, shorting USD/JPY was the best trade: image Here's a table of returns for major currencies over the following ...

USD/JPY Discussion

Fitch announced they may cut the U.S. credit rating due to the debt standoff in congress. Here's what happened to EUR/USD after S&P cut the U.S.'s credit rating in 2011: image Here's a table of returns for major currencies over the following ...

EURUSD

NZD/USD is down over 2.5% today. Here's what has happened next when NZD/USD was down this much, or more, in a single day. image Lots of 2008 and 2009 dates in the list!

NZD/USD

That can be true, but not necessarily. A loss that gives you a lesson implies things could have been done differently. That assumes the outcome was knowable, and it often isn't. Nobody can predict fat finger trades, terrorism, earthquakes, etc. So, ...

Would you either have a win or a loss?

AI has already revolutionized trading. Look at what firms like Bridgewater and AQR have accomplished with AI. I've read some publications from current or former AQR employees and it's incredibly advance what they're doing. They're doing ...

Will Artificial Intelligence Revolutionize Trading

When the spike drops out it makes the decline in CPI much more plausible since it would take a higher M/M gain to maintain the same Y/Y change. The Bank of England uses CPI Y/Y for their inflation target so its clearly important, despite being ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Are those 10-year yields? I would have liked to have tried 1-year or 5-year too, but international bond yield data isn't easy to get so those weren't available.

EURUSD only

At a high-level, here's how I'm looking at it... Hypothetically, let's pretend the UK Consumer Price Index was at 100 for all of year 2000. Then in January 2001, there was an energy embargo that caused energy prices to soar. That in turn drove CPI ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

I created this chart over the weekend that shows how EUR/USD compares against the U.S. - German 10-year yield spread. image This chart shows the relative strength for the rate spread is a bit lower. That suggest to me there may be more upside in ...

EURUSD only

I think base effects are a big factor in this month's CPI considering how much the raw index jumped last April. image image

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

You're 100% right. At the end of the day, what matters most is the data traders are following. That's a point I always emphasize that seems to get lost with academic economists.

Cable Update (GBPUSD)