Mathematically speaking, yes there is: Not doing it at all! In your 2nd chart the very best possible 2nd entry would have been right at the lowest price. There is no better set of positions (smaller cummulated lot size) which could average the price ...

MA-based trading Idea

I thought about a much faster way to do this! All of the following is under the assumption that the trades are independent. Let's assume in the following example that the win rate is 60% with a R:R of 1. The bet size if fixed to $1 per trade. Let's ...

Expectancy Management

Open to close. The high/low was not taken into account. Correct. Exact. Under the assumption of independence Pr(A|B) = Pr(A) and the join probability reduces to Pr(A,B) = Pr(A)*Pr(b) BTW n=3080

Day's first H4 candle correlation to daily candle

What do you mean by random? Say you are watching by your window and you see a car stopping at the stop sign. Is it going to turn left or right? To the best of your knowlegde this is 50% likely for each of the two directions. Do you think the driver ...

Do you believe this market is random?

Hi, I've built the probability distributions of a move for H4 and D1 candles for AUD/USD. They are grouped in 20 pip bins. Then I've build the matrix of the probability of D1 given H4. The excel file shows two cells per entry. The expected value is ...

Day's first H4 candle correlation to daily candle

They perfectly belong this place. Please go ahead.

Expectancy Management

Thank you 9047 for posting these results. I notice a small bullish bias. I think it is certainly only due to the fundamentals of A/U: Aussie used to be a carry trade pair on the buy side. I suppose that if you do it again with G/J you'll get a small ...

Day's first H4 candle correlation to daily candle

That's a super-over-simplified example... I meant that the SL (in pips) will roughly be the same for the 4 entries and because the "long term" trade would be taken more or less at the same place and the same conditions as the 1st of them its SL ...

Expectancy Management

Again this favors a small R:R (once the expectancy is fixed) because a smaller winrate will always have a wider std deviation... But R:R=1 isn't perfect. With a fixed size MM, a winner and a loser balance each other: 1 + -1 = 0. Using a compounding ...

Expectancy Management

It is weird that the second curve points down in average as the expectancy is positive... I'm the one who is going to change my mind the most in this thread.

Expectancy Management

Correct. I had also in mind overlapping trades. I wasn't thinking about the correlation between the equity and the price. I was thinking about the correlation between the outcome of one trade vs the outcome of the previous ones. I saw the price as a ...

Expectancy Management

Thank you for your effort in reproducing the experiment. Your excel file is correct. It is clear that you found a mistake of mine. Now my own fundamental concepts are shaken! And this is certainly a good thing. I still have a little problem with the ...

Expectancy Management

It looks like there is some hard hurdle that block people from understanding something important: BREAKEVER IS A LOSER! None of this is about thinking, believing or agreeing. It's just maths. It's not by gathering enough people to agree that 1+1=3 ...

What is a good entry?

TLS=total least square? Which norm are you going to use to mesure the distance between two points?

Synthetic hedges, cointegration, mean reversion and similar stuff

For a simple binary outcome (win X or lose Y), the optimal bet size is E/R. Where E is the expectancy of your system and R the R:R. Your win rate is 0.8: E = 0.8(R+1)-1=0.8R-0.2 For a bet size E/R=0.6, solving in R gives R=1. Your statement is true ...

Need a little fix for that trading plan

One of the first stats of this kind I made was: "If a day is up, how low is the lower shadow? If a day is down, how high is the upper shadow?" Or stated otherwise, how big shall my SL be to not be unduly stopped out? Below is an excel file that ...

Knowing your market by collecting stats

Should you have properly read my post, the win rate of the second example is 33.3% If the coin is fair it will eventually give heads 50% of the time. When you toss the coin 10 times you may indeed come up with 7+3. You can and you will also get ...

Every indicator can be profitable?

Asking a girl her oppinion before she changes her mind is like flipping a coin ROFL. So let's flip a coin and let the little girl play her doll. She isn't interested in markets beyond the colors of the charts anyway :-) When you totally ignore the ...

Every indicator can be profitable?

Looks good and well documented. but it seems like you can only use it inside the JForex application. Can it be used standalone?

Any broker with API trading on small accounts?

I'm writing a rather big piece of software ( url ). I'm not willing to open source it. If you need some help to get started with the FXCM API no problem. Just ask. I'll certainly be more reactive and useful than their support. I didn't write the ...

Any broker with API trading on small accounts?