I don't see the U.S. interest rates increasing to compensate their inflation... After all USA external debt is in USD. The weaker USD the less they owe, no? $1 in 1913 and $1 today aren't the same at all. This is to me the reason why stocks go up: ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

What I don't understand is your aggressiveness and we aren't brothers. Random walk isn't a theory but a mathematical model for a time series. As if linear regression was outdated! Papers keep being written on Hidden Markovian Models and particle ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Don't take it personal. There is nothing at all personal in my answer. It isn't important to whom the account belongs. Being up or down going isn't important either. I was just answering your question "Btw, does this look like random walk?". Per ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

May you generate a qq-plot against a Cauchy distribution?

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I don't know if it LOOKS LIKE but it IS! Despite the ego of people everybody's winrate isn't fixed but oscillates around an average winrate. Same thing for the R:R. Even if you use fixed SL and TP the slippage creates variation. Therefore your ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I didn't investigate on the cycles. I found this could be interresing for basket traders. The lag is a killer with this indicator. It often is. When it finds a pair is strongly trending the move is already made. But fading this move is deadly. So ...

Kalman filter and currencies strength

Knowing that 1+1=3, denying any proof it isn't true is called Faith. There are no arguments against that.

Does the martingale system really work?

Yes, I know. I was only teasing too

Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading

“Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler” (A. Einstein) Sometimes the simplest possible is already quite complex. We have to do with it.

Quantitative and Algorithmic Trading

Demonstration that a martingale is a RR=0 game: url Demonstration that a martingale is fallacy: url Demonstration that NO MM may be an edge: url Probability on N losers given your winrate: url When increasing the bet makes sense while a ...

Does the martingale system really work?

It may... depending on the level of the martingale, your starting bet size and your allowed leverage. It can happen you won't be able to open the next doubling trade, short on margin. You'd have to start from x1 again and everything collapses. In ...

Does the martingale system really work?

Add the margin requirment.

Does the martingale system really work?

What are you talking about? You say it works and that it blows the account at the same time. You say you don't use it despite it works. You say here are the parameters to make it work where all of examples show wrecking accounts. I keep repeating ...

Does the martingale system really work?

Oh sorry we don't share exactly the same plan...

Does the martingale system really work?

I nice graphical version by Proximus: url image And there are still people to say it works!

Martingale Simulator (you go bankrupt every time)

A martingale level of 1 isn't really a martingale... The 5 sets of parameters destroy the account, as expected. I don't see the long term profitability. It's like betting the house and getting a lucky 4:1 winner trade followed by a loser that wipes ...

Does the martingale system really work?

Six ridiculous months of research are not at all a LOT of time (with capitalization). Learning is never a waste of time. The only waste of time is to try explaining something to someone who wants to keep believing the opposite despite any of proof.

Does the martingale system really work?

- Reversing the signals of a loser EA makes a pips pumping machine. - SL are killing your account - Do use a hedge instead and you get the Holy Grail. - By using a martingale, one never loses. I got the definitive idea! Let's take a loser EA and ...

Need a reverse option on this EA

I knew I should have added a picture. This is an idealized Kelly curve. image Important note: the top of the curve for a real life system is much closer to zero. Often it is even smaller than the 1% rule of thumb MM! The Kelly bet size is at the ...

Does the martingale system really work?

The problem doesn't come from the rate of growth of the increase nor with the capped vs unlimited martingale. It comes down to the reason behind the increase of the wager. It makes sense that if your probability of winning is bigger the bet size ...

Does the martingale system really work?