Why? A spurious trend is a trend nonetheless. A random walk isn't stationary. Mr Begginer Joe would lose his shirt doing this. As I'm using the market data itself I cannot choose the skewness. I used S&P500 and Gold as they clearly show an uptrend. ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Yet another thread at FF that turned into a pathetic me-pissing-far contest... I feel so sorry for redlion. Unsubscribed.

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

No. For each E/U tick from my DB I kept the timestamp and the spread and I replaced the bid with a random value. This is why the sundays bars are small on the charts: they have almost no ticks inside. The timestamps in my database have 1 second ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Not at all. I used the Mersenne Twister. It isn't cryptographically strong but it is commonly used for Monte-Carlo simulations. For the purpose of generating a random chart it is very sufficient, especially for visual inspection. Anyway I've no more ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Nubcake you're amazing! The two first charts are indeed random. The third chart is G/U daily from 12/09/2011 to 03/04/2012. I thought I could trick you with a ranging market because usually people expect a random walk to oscillate around a mean. I ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

May I ask you to try with these three charts please? image image image

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

H4 pips return for EUR/USD since 28/11/2001 against Cauchy. image

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I thought about this doji thingy a little bit more. If I flip 2 coins what is the probability I get as many heads than tails? There are 4 possibilities {HH, HT, TH, TT}, two of them have as many heads than tails {HT, TH}. The probability is 2 out of ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

On M1 -------- AUD/JPY UP 1857284 43.310% DOWN 1829505 42.663% DOJI 601521 14.027% CHF/JPY UP 1827024 42.370% DOWN 1809107 41.955% DOJI 675894 15.675% XAU/USD UP 729773 47.514% DOWN 725379 47.228% DOJI 80755 5.258% Weekly -------- AUD/JPY UP 345 ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

They more or less follow a 1/2^n decay in both M1 and H4. Perfectly in agreement with a bernouilli trial EUR/USD - H4 since 28/11/2001 Length Count Percentage 1 4979 51.25 2 2413 24.84 3 1198 12.33 4 616 6.34 5 263 2.71 6 139 1.43 7 63 0.65 8 19 ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

From my data set: M1 candles on EUR/USD from 28/11/2001 04:10:00 to 13/12/2013 21:58:00 UP 1734571 41.90% DOWN 1729001 41.77% DOJI 675587 16.32% S&P is upside biaised yet, there are still as many up than down: M1 candles on S&P500 from 19/08/2008 ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

This is exactly it. I found web sites where the authors show a qq-plot of a Cauchy against a Gaussian. In all honesty I don't know how they do since a Cauchy distribution has got no quantile defined... Let me call a imaginary thing the "intrinsic ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Hyperinflation is an extremely rare event with extreme consequences. This is exactly the definition of 1/f noise ( url ) With fat tail distributions like Cauchy the notion of sigma disappears altogether. 1 sigma is infinite. If the market was always ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I meant that the "value" of the whole money would be constant (like energy) and it would just flow back and forth. Money would accumulate in gold for some time then flow somewhere else. Like the heat of a hot cup of coffee flows to the air of the ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I don't see the U.S. interest rates increasing to compensate their inflation... After all USA external debt is in USD. The weaker USD the less they owe, no? $1 in 1913 and $1 today aren't the same at all. This is to me the reason why stocks go up: ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

What I don't understand is your aggressiveness and we aren't brothers. Random walk isn't a theory but a mathematical model for a time series. As if linear regression was outdated! Papers keep being written on Hidden Markovian Models and particle ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Don't take it personal. There is nothing at all personal in my answer. It isn't important to whom the account belongs. Being up or down going isn't important either. I was just answering your question "Btw, does this look like random walk?". Per ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

May you generate a qq-plot against a Cauchy distribution?

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I don't know if it LOOKS LIKE but it IS! Despite the ego of people everybody's winrate isn't fixed but oscillates around an average winrate. Same thing for the R:R. Even if you use fixed SL and TP the slippage creates variation. Therefore your ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I didn't investigate on the cycles. I found this could be interresing for basket traders. The lag is a killer with this indicator. It often is. When it finds a pair is strongly trending the move is already made. But fading this move is deadly. So ...

Kalman filter and currencies strength