I get that, not a buy here or sell there type thing, but I'm very, very careful to quantify these things else it gets a bit nebulous and hand wavy. How's transition risk calculated? As a way of timing regime changes, it's way too laggy but as a way ...

Why Price Alone Is Incomplete

I'd never spent too much time on it given the lag (tue close to Friday right?) but this I guess is very dependent on your hold time for trades. are you a swing trader? And how do you quantify the impact if so? to transfer it to actionable trades?

Why Price Alone Is Incomplete

easy one this... LSEG do have L3 data on certain exchanges, but CME isn't one of 'em. Same story on bloomberg too. Only L1 and L2. Looks like Databento, Datamine (CMEs) or BMLL from a quick search (never heard of it till now incidentally). If you go ...

Level 3 (Market By Order / MBO) order book data

I use LSEG and can check prices if you want but it won't be cheaper than buying direct. The 3rd parties usually offer data that's cleansed, or formatted for easier use at a markup. I ran into same issues with DTCC data. Once they wrapped it into a ...

Level 3 (Market By Order / MBO) order book data

Something else entirely... This applies to Gold but could be any instrument to be honest. If you're going to go systematic, you're either going to strike it lucky for a few months and then crash. Or just crash. If you repeat what I see everywhere in ...

Why do so many XAU/USD EAs fail long term?

Yes true, but measuring in basis points doesn't solve that. The problem happens way before the backtest. Positions should be sized to expected volatility. Because that's non-trivial to calculate, you end up with a hodge podge of meaningless ...

The Drawdown Illusion: Why Standard Drawdown Metrics Fail?

there's less than 5 FX retail brokers worldwide you should sensible trade with OR futures. Anything outside of these, expect shading, last look x 2, unusual spreads and slippage and withdrawal problems. There are zero ways to work around a dodgy ...

Mental exercise: "You" are a broker

You're on a roll. So few traders even get to realising this. *This* is what it's all about. Psych issues = no conviction in your market read = lack of knowledge about what's going on. Not issues stemming from that time at bandcamp

How Professionals Really Think About Position Size

One hedge fund led the SaaSpocalypse? Which one? I'm all ears if true, but not heard this one. SaaS sell-off was overblown - enterprise software isn't going down the pan, except maybe a couple who've been pretending to incorporate AI. But narrow ...

"Wave of AI-fueled" layoffs

Sane approach from @jsfinancials

Your Charts are Too Complicated

OK - freezing this for the month. 2_9_5 is done, surfacing coarse regime stats (I started with granular - wrong way around). So there's two entirely separate versions of regime stats on one page. Simple and complex. From here next month to do list: ...

The Big Kahuna: Full FX dashboard (MT5 only)

And onto V 2_9_5 : improvements in the regime stats including a horror show of debugging, to answer a few questions. Firstly, are the regime bands sensible. Does it flip around or is it relatively stable. Good news is now, across our 3 dimensions ...

The Big Kahuna: Full FX dashboard (MT5 only)

2_9_4 Now we're getting somewhere. So now, we have curves done, forecast of hourlies and actuals. In addition we've a regime filter that works in shadow mode - doesn't impact anything at present. The attached shows what we currently have - hourly ...

The Big Kahuna: Full FX dashboard (MT5 only)

Progress reports: 2_9_2 So I've got events in and calibrated to give uplifts. Nothing too complex here - all events in the past 2 years classified as CB, Macro London, Macro NY, pre-event day, or none. Impact assessed to produce uplifts by each ...

The Big Kahuna: Full FX dashboard (MT5 only)

Update: I've been working on this for a while now, and not published intermediate versions because it takes a long time to get to production quality (switching on caching, checking it works and doesn't pollute etc). I'm updating the versions above ...

The Big Kahuna: Full FX dashboard (MT5 only)

Exactly this. Retail FX is no different to retail stocks, commodities, rates etc, it's all trading but the sales push was harder, and entire youtube industries sprung up telling people what they want to hear, not what they need to hear, aided and ...

Forex - A negative sum game for losers

. We know, we know 9 years dude. What you doing for the 10 year anniversary of this thread? Writing to the SEC?

Forex - A negative sum game for losers

totally get it, nice one. sure let's discuss after your project is over. PS sorry for the thread derail...

Converting MetaTrader5 into TradingView (literally!)

Exactly. Given I've got working dashboards that store all the data and events in a persistent cache makes sense to fully utilise it. My understanding is best to use AI only for generating analysis script rather than asking it to hallucinate some ...

Converting MetaTrader5 into TradingView (literally!)

Emmzett, I know that's not addressed to me, but as a vibe coder I'm learning basic barry stuff here - can you reliably integrate external data feeds with dlls? Refinitiv in this case - python api in case that makes a difference?

Converting MetaTrader5 into TradingView (literally!)