Nice call... as we see, EURCHF is reaching all an all time low. I'm surprised that Dutch and German bond rates remain so low. If we produce debt to finance other countries' (bad) debt, the "good" and "bad" rates are bound to converge, at least by a ...

Silent Service Method

I think they'll be alright until the market starts rejecting Spain's debt, which is inevitable given their current economic situation and prospects. I wouldn't dare to provide you with a timeframe.

How long before the Euro Crashes?

And: IF markets behave in cycles, AND a trading system performs well under certain market conditions, and bad under other conditions, THEN this type of money management can provide an edge.

Trading least risk while trading at your worst

Statistical edge and the kelly ratio. If you believe (and apparently you do) that markets behave in cycles, and that there are periods when your trading system works (e.g. trending markets, ranging markets), it is logical to reduce risk when the ...

Trading least risk while trading at your worst

What do you think of this AUDUSD flag? If the inside bar develops I might be interested in this trade, especially since it coincides with my fundamental view on these currencies.

Silent Service Method

The majority isn't wrong, so trading against them will not provide you with an edge. However, I like what you're hinting at. It would be very interesting to see real-time retail orderflow. In fact, if you read into market microstructure literature, ...

Trading against thy fellow trader

You probably don't need to change leverage. Just remember that a lot equals $10 per pip, a mini lot equals $1 per pip, and a micro lot equals $.1 per pip. If you want to set a SL at 100 pips, and you want to risk $200, this means you should trade ...

Managing your Money : Leverage

Maybe you can also look into making a filter that prevents you from taking trades during major announcements.

How do you filter out bad trades?

Drop the concept of time, and adopt the concept of statistics. Statistics will tell you whether a strategy is (still) successfull (i.e. has an edge) or not.

How long do you consider a strategy is successful

Non-US dollar currency indices shouldn't move in lockstep with their denomination in dollars. However, high correlation is expected, as the dollar generally receives the largest weight in constructing the index. If you want us to have a look at the ...

Currency Index Correlations

I'd look at the major crosspairs, and evaluate the minors against their most important counterpart. This means most currencies (including CAD) will be evaluated against the US dollar. However, certain currencies (e.g. SEK) are better to be evaluated ...

Diversifying Currency Pairs!

No offence, but what he said is incorrect. I think the answer you're looking for lies in the pricing of derivatives. I guess that in theory, consensus on interest rate changes can be deduced from the difference between spot and futures prices.

Pricing in?

Hahaha, this made me laugh out loud.

If you could ask one question to the best trader in the world

Prices exhibit long range dependence.

What do you absolutely know about the Market?

Following up on the earlier post, the price of ASMI dropped (as did the entire stock index .) Anyway, now we're at ~1.2 RR.

Silent Service Method

Lets define the act of overtrading as trading without having a genuine positive expectation. So, that anyone who trades without an edge is engaging in overtrading. Emotional factors such as overconfidence (possibly originating from a winning streak) ...

Is overtrading a necessary stage?

Clockwork and others, please have a look at the following charts. Different timeframes of a Dutch company called ASMI. I feel that if this daily bar remains an inside bar, there is a golden opportunity to short if it breaks below the previous day's ...

Silent Service Method

It is a zero sum game, so there's no real benefit. The argument you'll hear from traders and market makers is that they provide liquidity, which in essence means that their activities reduce the cost of trading. However, I feel that we've long ...

How does trading benefit the economy?

By the way, have you guys heard about this movie? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtUQmRZMCYU

Silent Service Method

My arguments for a weak dollar are not limited to the printing of money (which might be overblown, but still has been significant). Instead, the current account deficit is enormous, and keeps growing, while at the same time the world - countries, as ...

Silent Service Method