Yep, ecb has no powder left but fed will have plenty of monetary easing options, and this fact will stand for years

The Swamp

100% agree. We have a psychological bias towards holding, because that allows us to believe in our superior strategy. Only realizes losses "prove" the failures in our strategies.

The Swamp

How can it be negative? Stock price = discounted future cash flows Lower rate = lower discount rate = higher stock price

EURUSD only

Surely interest rates have a direct effect on stock prices. Every time.

EURUSD only

Yeah statistics have this funny element that you can usually draw 2 perfectly legitimate but opposing conclusions from the same data... It does suck, and I can only be grateful that I happened to be born in a privileged western country

The Swamp

Logarithmic graph is a straight line when the underlying data is exponential. When log graph is not a straight line, the growth is either accelerating or decelerating I'm just trying to sound smart here lol

The Swamp

Yes the growth is exponential, but less and less exponential every day: image url 2 perspectives...

The Swamp

The NFP wasn't super weak if you put it in the context - just reversion to the mean after huge november NFP. Earnings stagnation continues, though.

The Swamp

The average, although the 2 usually move in same direction

EURUSD only

url

EURUSD only

After ~15 hours of decline, the retail crowd is still heavily on short. This usually means a very choppy bear move at best, while uptrend continuation is possible at any point.

EURUSD only

Euro rose back above 1.115 even faster than it fell below.. Weak bears, weak bulls. I'm preparing for consolidation this week.

EURUSD only

The short percent will only grow as the trend continues, it's always the same story. This means the selling crowd will be right at some point, probably after making new high...

The Swamp

PA is super bullish and everyone is adding to their losing short positions. My conspiracy theory: end the week above 1.1170, don't let bears out their positions, eat all stops with monday gap

EURUSD only

So the markets moved on EU accepting a deal that probably won't even have the UK parliament support? Smells fishy to me

The Swamp

Yeah, it's not a definite indicator by no means. I use it as a preliminary condition: if either average is above ~70 -> a stop-run is possible, if both below ~70 -> a stop-run is not likely

The Swamp

Most of the time the PA is near upper extreme, a pain for all short holders. A squeeze is making it's way, maybe a nice spike above 1.11

The Swamp

How different worlds we live in...

The Swamp

It's friday, time to kill some accounts... This time the long positions are on the menu. If the coming data will allow it, EU would love to fall off the cliff image image

EURUSD only

Concept of "oversold" only works in ranging market. In a breakout, you should forget "overbought" and "oversold". These are the anomalies that destroy 95% of traders, failure to adapt.

EURUSD only