With you. But would suggest re- reading Tillman's "Technically Speaking" interview on the same. There is a hint there :-)

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Yes I do get the English :-) but your comments have more depth than the simple use of words. :-)

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Just highlighting a possibility- in case you believe in wave theory :-) image

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

FXEZ- can you please elaborate a bit on this. At any point of time, aren't there all data points to compute the current MA ? Or are you referring to projected MA ? Some clarification will be appreciated.

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Thank you FXEZ for your post. What surprizes me is the simple behavior of numbers- whether considered as an average of prices or underlying prices themselves - see example below. I had no idea numbers move in the manner below: image

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

When MA 32 moved from point A to point B it not just added new data but also deleted data . Hence the difference in sum totals of prices between MA 32 at point B and MA 32 at point A contains this entire movement- the deletion of old data and the ...

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Terry- if you are finding it complex then no point in me trying :-) MAs will not bend to simple computations/ maths and the results may not be worth the coding effort. Initially I thought that the sum total of prices at projected MA at a point say B ...

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

True but deriving price differential based on MA projection is not straight forward. Will try and explain today with the help of a chart. The difficulty is not in projecting the MA like you said but in projecting price once MA is known.

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

That doesnt seem to be the case though....... Just sharing a chart below. At point A the MA 32 was at INR 10,691. Projected FP was point B (where it went eventually) which was INR 10,715. The time from point A to point B was about 7 bars of 15 min ...

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Alain, Klausi, Had a query for you. If MA 64 current value is INR 4553 and expected MA 64 value is INR 4555. Does it mean that expected movement in price is INR 2 ? Or is there a multiplier effect depending on the MA being considered ? I tried ...

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Playing with envelopes: image image image

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Thanks Alain for your patience

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Another cross section from same stock- MA 16 apparently flattens, turns up, price also seems to confirm and then everything drops: image

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Thank you !!. What used to confuse me was the intermediate tops/ bottoms formed by a MA - see MA 16 in chart attached. Each time (see marked section) one is tempted to conclude that the average has bottomed and now all bigger MAs will also ...

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Thanks for pointing out. Read the sections in Ch 3. Slightly clear that a MA lets say 16 is suppressing / smoothing most fluctuations below / upto 16 and allowing all other cycles (32-64-128-256) to come through. So the question again remains- if 16 ...

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

But there was a timing difference right ? For example, 16 made a low at time T, then 32 made a low at T+8 and 64 made its low at T+ 16 ? So when 16 made its low and moved up, why does Hurst say that it is sum of all components higher than itself ?

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Some entries based on envelopes: image image image image

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

Alain, Came across a line in the Profitmagic book by Hurst which I had ignored in the past, thought I should understand it atleast now image "A centerline through the middle of a channel is a good representation of the sum of all components of ...

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

True, but in lots of cases, price will stagnate after the 8 bars up and come down, unless the other MAs decide to play catch up.

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

image

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles