Yes it does absolutely mean that it is random. This is the definition of a random variable. The randomness is independent of the fact that the uncertainty comes from the generating process or your lack of knowlegde about the event. When I look at ...

Do you believe this market is random?

Because the hypothesis "market is random" holds thus far. If you don't quantify you don't estimate the risk. What is the english word already for "risking money against the odds on an uncertain event?"

Do you believe this market is random?

BTW guys if the market isn't random for you what's the point in predicting something you already know?

Do you believe this market is random?

Rap, here is an experiement with a serie of one single element: I have a perfectly balanced coin in my hand. I'm going to flip it. Is it going to show HEAD or TAIL? To the best of your knowledge it is 50-50. You can't guess better. I do flip the ...

Do you believe this market is random?

Ah I understand. Sorry I thought you were indeed refering to pure TA: price can only go up 'coz it broke a trendline kind of stuff. The experiment is irrelevant to you. Fundamentals play a major role in your decision process. Fundamentals are ...

Do you believe this market is random?

You would be very surprised if you did the experiment for a long enough sequence of trades.

idea for a statistical strategy

That's an interesting question. What do you need in addition to the chart? Not the asset otherwise you may trade the fundamentals instead of the inherent structure of the market. Can you see such a structure in this chart?

Do you believe this market is random?

What underlying structures are there in this chart which could have been traded? image

Do you believe this market is random?

I share this point of view. We can do with what we have or we can regret forever not having the information we wish we had and do nothing else than whining. Option 1: we think that's not enough information and we bring some evidence of this ...

Order flow trading thread

I had no real clue about what I was doing you know ;-) I built the chart following this mental process, which can perfectly be totally flawed: First I needed to "scope" the research for the indi. How long ago to look back? As I didn't know I just ...

Order flow trading thread

I tried wavelet decomposition. I also had a look at the empirical mode decomposition (there is a R module). 60 bars are way too small a sample but you should be able to cruch a week worth of data without involving the amazon cluster. The real ...

Does advanced functional analysis make any sense?

Oh cool! That's at least a full month we didn't have a "let's reverse a loser" kind of thread....yippee

idea for a statistical strategy

For the sake of my curiosity I built the profile before the lowest low. The green blob was already there. Unsure I would have bought against the trend but a good zone to cover a short for a bear at that time. I think I'm going to investigate a bit ...

Order flow trading thread

Just looking at the picture... The big red spike is coincident with an obvious S/R. After it is broken, the green bump just above looks like a good place to set a buy limit and the green bump below would have been a decent place to hide a SL the ...

Order flow trading thread

Actually that was my question No clue!

Order flow trading thread

OK sir. Let's turn the graph 90° ;-) A/U range bar chart 20 pips. The histogram is calculated at the point where it is drawn. So the right side of the line is the "future" as far as it is concern. Note that the construction of the histogram is ...

Order flow trading thread

How do you estimate the inflow/outflow of the currencies? I tried to do this ( url ) but the results aren't extraordinary because the lag is too big.

Order flow trading thread

Beware total Order Flow newbie here. Please don't shot! From what I understood thus far. Retail spot FX traders can see neither the real volume nor the L2 data. The only thing we have in our hands is the ticks fed by our dear broker. So OF can ...

Order flow trading thread

You need a post-doctoral diploma in genetics to answer a riddle yet you can acurately predict the market... hmm interesting.

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Our brain evolved to quickly find approximative solutions. Evolution taught the various species that it is better to cowardly escape a piece of rotten wood rather than taking the time to go and check whether it is indeed a predator or not. Brain is ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?