Stocks indeed tend to fall faster than they raise. But the distributions of the returns in FX are very symmetric at any TF. But it explains why daily trend sometimes abruptly end with a huge 1h opposite bar: trend traders trail their SL. Why a hedge ...

Do you believe this market is random?

She means that the take profit is not coming from a rational decision based on economy facts like crisis, employment, interest rate, news or whatever. Objectively 1.3700 is nothing more special than 1.3697. The 00 level is choosen because it is ...

Do you believe this market is random?

It actually happens in 100% of the cases. Otherwise you would have an arbitrage. I checked in my history with E/U, A/U and E/A, and at no point in time over the last 10 years the difference was over the 1 pip. Doesn't cover the spread.

Do you believe this market is random?

I'm finishing reading Osler. It is indeed a very interesting reading. I should try reproducing her experiment if I get the time. I wonder if it still holds nowadays. I doubt because she writes that the majors in 2003 were not strongly correlated (?) ...

Do you believe this market is random?

The transaction happens at the very moment your order is filled. When you close your position it is another transaction, usually with someone else.

Do you believe this market is random?

I think you're making things more complicated than needed. There is no transaction inside the transaction. The sell, the payment and the delivery and distinct elements of a transaction which have no reason to happen simultaneously.

Do you believe this market is random?

I definitely don't get it. If I sell my car I have the money in my hands and no longer have a car. I needn't buy it back later to "close" any position nor am I forced to buy any other car. That's the same for bank A except they sold EUR instead of a ...

Do you believe this market is random?

That's the point I don't understand. Bank A holds no position to be closed. It took no risk. It already made money with the commission. It has more USD and less EUR than before that's it.

Do you believe this market is random?

When a MM bids lower that's your ask which goes down. He sells to you and you buy at his ask price ;-)

Do you believe this market is random?

I don't understand your chart. If the seller was a big bank it has no position to close. He sold a bunch of EUR for a bunch of USD. Now he can sell his USD to get some GBP, moving G/U instead. He can even sell the GBP for EUR and is now somewhat ...

Do you believe this market is random?

You don't need a single lot sold to have the price going lower. If no buyer is buying the MMs will have to lower their bid to sell the lots they want to sell. Selling currency lots or pairs of shoes is alsmost the same, you adjust your margin to the ...

Do you believe this market is random?

image Sure all of this isn't happening by random chance. But How many Jonnhies are in the market? Will Big Boy enter now or after his morning meeting? How much will the market move when Big Boy enters? Does Big Boy really have a second half to ...

Do you believe this market is random?

They need no bots to do it. I can't imagine they sell aggressively in order to... buy. They just stop buying and the market naturally does it's job: no more buyers = price goes down. Big boys wants to buy at a good price = the support. Retailers who ...

Do you believe this market is random?

From the second link page 17 This is exactely my point of view. 1- Random walk holds, especially when using a good distribution not the Normal one 2- There are reliable components, e.g. the trend is more stable in real market than it is in a (1st ...

Do you believe this market is random?

Again with the risk of repeating myself: random and unpredictable are independent concepts.

Do you believe this market is random?

Black swan?! image

Do you believe this market is random?

Yes it does absolutely mean that it is random. This is the definition of a random variable. The randomness is independent of the fact that the uncertainty comes from the generating process or your lack of knowlegde about the event. When I look at ...

Do you believe this market is random?

Because the hypothesis "market is random" holds thus far. If you don't quantify you don't estimate the risk. What is the english word already for "risking money against the odds on an uncertain event?"

Do you believe this market is random?

BTW guys if the market isn't random for you what's the point in predicting something you already know?

Do you believe this market is random?

Rap, here is an experiement with a serie of one single element: I have a perfectly balanced coin in my hand. I'm going to flip it. Is it going to show HEAD or TAIL? To the best of your knowledge it is 50-50. You can't guess better. I do flip the ...

Do you believe this market is random?