How could this be? The TP can only push the price backward from where it is coming from. Any order which used to be there has already been triggered. It is irrational because it is based on the expectation of an irrational decision to be taken! ...

Do you believe this market is random?

That's not a problem of definition. It is a problem of nonsense. "30 pips per hour" is a measure of velocity whereas "45° slope" is a measure of angle. That's the same nonsense as when traders talk about "momentum". Momentum is about inertia which ...

Do you believe this market is random?

You can't quantify "too steep" or WHEN the bubble will pop out. You can neither estimate how far the price will be pushed back. And what can be a 45° angle in time by price coordinates?

Do you believe this market is random?

Absolutely because despite you can explain (and even exploit) the phenomenon you can still not forecast it acurately in time, in price and in magnitude. You can't even know if it will happen this time or not if the price reaches the level X.

Do you believe this market is random?

Stocks indeed tend to fall faster than they raise. But the distributions of the returns in FX are very symmetric at any TF. But it explains why daily trend sometimes abruptly end with a huge 1h opposite bar: trend traders trail their SL. Why a hedge ...

Do you believe this market is random?

She means that the take profit is not coming from a rational decision based on economy facts like crisis, employment, interest rate, news or whatever. Objectively 1.3700 is nothing more special than 1.3697. The 00 level is choosen because it is ...

Do you believe this market is random?

It actually happens in 100% of the cases. Otherwise you would have an arbitrage. I checked in my history with E/U, A/U and E/A, and at no point in time over the last 10 years the difference was over the 1 pip. Doesn't cover the spread.

Do you believe this market is random?

I'm finishing reading Osler. It is indeed a very interesting reading. I should try reproducing her experiment if I get the time. I wonder if it still holds nowadays. I doubt because she writes that the majors in 2003 were not strongly correlated (?) ...

Do you believe this market is random?

The transaction happens at the very moment your order is filled. When you close your position it is another transaction, usually with someone else.

Do you believe this market is random?

I think you're making things more complicated than needed. There is no transaction inside the transaction. The sell, the payment and the delivery and distinct elements of a transaction which have no reason to happen simultaneously.

Do you believe this market is random?

I definitely don't get it. If I sell my car I have the money in my hands and no longer have a car. I needn't buy it back later to "close" any position nor am I forced to buy any other car. That's the same for bank A except they sold EUR instead of a ...

Do you believe this market is random?

That's the point I don't understand. Bank A holds no position to be closed. It took no risk. It already made money with the commission. It has more USD and less EUR than before that's it.

Do you believe this market is random?

When a MM bids lower that's your ask which goes down. He sells to you and you buy at his ask price ;-)

Do you believe this market is random?

I don't understand your chart. If the seller was a big bank it has no position to close. He sold a bunch of EUR for a bunch of USD. Now he can sell his USD to get some GBP, moving G/U instead. He can even sell the GBP for EUR and is now somewhat ...

Do you believe this market is random?

You don't need a single lot sold to have the price going lower. If no buyer is buying the MMs will have to lower their bid to sell the lots they want to sell. Selling currency lots or pairs of shoes is alsmost the same, you adjust your margin to the ...

Do you believe this market is random?

image Sure all of this isn't happening by random chance. But How many Jonnhies are in the market? Will Big Boy enter now or after his morning meeting? How much will the market move when Big Boy enters? Does Big Boy really have a second half to ...

Do you believe this market is random?

They need no bots to do it. I can't imagine they sell aggressively in order to... buy. They just stop buying and the market naturally does it's job: no more buyers = price goes down. Big boys wants to buy at a good price = the support. Retailers who ...

Do you believe this market is random?

From the second link page 17 This is exactely my point of view. 1- Random walk holds, especially when using a good distribution not the Normal one 2- There are reliable components, e.g. the trend is more stable in real market than it is in a (1st ...

Do you believe this market is random?

Again with the risk of repeating myself: random and unpredictable are independent concepts.

Do you believe this market is random?

Black swan?! image

Do you believe this market is random?